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Let's take a look at new Dolphins' offensive coordinator Norv Turner's record with running backs:

Rams 1985-1990: Norv was the receivers coach and almost certainly had nothing to do with the success of any RBs. I only point this out because I have seen Eric Dickerson's name on the list of RBs who have thrived under Turner. It should not be there.

Cowboys 1991-1993: Turner was the offensive coordinator, and Emmitt Smith was the running back. In 1990, the year before Turner arrived, the rookie Emmitt was the #7 fantasy running back in the league. In Turner's three years, Emmitt was #3, #1, and #1. The two years after Turner left, 1994 and 1995, Emmitt stayed at #1.

I've got some questions about how much credit Turner deserves for Smith's success:

1. When a 2nd-year RB moves from 7th to 3rd, is that really anything more than the normal expected improvement from a good young back?
2. Given that Turner was a rookie OC working for a control freak of a head coach in Jimmy Johnson, how much of the offensive system was Norv's, and how much was Jimmy's?
3. Smith didn't miss a beat when Turner left. His best season was 1995, two years after Turner split town. How much of his post-Turner success (if any) should be attributed to Turner?

I don't really have definitive answers to any of those questions. You can make up your own mind, but it's unclear to me whether Turner deserves any kind of special credit here at all.

Redskins 1994-2000: Turner was the head coach and this is where he built his reputation as a running back producer. Terry Allen only had two healthy years as a Redskin, and he ranked #1 and #7 in those two seasons. His two best pre-Turner seasons were #4 and #11 as a Viking in 1992 and 1994. Turner didn't make something out of nothing, but he did make something into something a little bit better.

Stephen Davis was 4th and 12th in his two years under Turner, and 10th the year after Turner left. Again, slightly better under Turner.

Turner also got 8 TDs out of Skip Hicks in half a season.

It's not all roses, though. In 1993, the year before Turner got to Washington, the Skins were 16th in rushing yards and 12th in rushing TDs. In 1994, Turner's first year, they dropped to 24th and 27th despite keeping essentially the same cast of runners.

Chargers 2001: Turner was the offensive coordinator and got a better season out of Tomlinson than most people expected.

Although I think his reputation is exaggerated, it's fair to say that Norv Turner's offenses are fairly RB-friendly. He has a record of getting slightly-better-than-expected production out of very good RBs.

So we should mark Ricky Williams up this year, right?

Yes, but....

Here's the yes part: the rushing TDs will almost certainly come up, probably by a lot. Turner's backs have posted some gaudy TD numbers, and there is some precedent for high-TD seasons by Dave Wannstedt-coached RBs as well: most recently Lamar Smith, but Wannstedt also got 10-TD seasons out of Rashaan Salaam and Raymont Harris. I think Williams is a good short-yardage back who was under-used by the Saints near the goal line last year. A 5- or 6-TD increase by Williams this year wouldn't surprise me a bit.

Now for the but part: Williams had 511 receiving yards last year and that will likely come down. In all those great Turner RB seasons we saw (Smith 91-93, Allen 95-96, Davis 99-00, Tomlinson 01), only once did the back gain over 400 yards through the air. The average of those seasons was 31 receiving fantasy points. Williams had 57 last year. So some of what he gains in rushing TDs, he'll give back in receiving production.

So where does that leave Williams? In my view, probably a little bit better than last year. Not a lot, just a little.