Thanks for reading this column. I appreciate the mail I have gotten over the year, and feel fortunate to be connected with such a great group of dedicated fans. Have a Merry Christmas (or happy Hanukkah/Kwanzaa/Holiday greetings)!

I am happy to take any questions you may have about keeper, dynasty leagues or rookies in the upcoming draft (starting to gear up for the rookies already). Email at [email protected].

I am not going to spend a lot of time on games this week since so many leagues are already done. Instead, I am going to release my preliminary set of rankings.

TOP watch

• Lions -4
• Seahawks -3
• Falcons -3
• Chiefs 0 (but I think it will be -2 or -3, since the Bears offense can beat the Chiefs D)
• Texans -3
• Cardinals -3
• Packers -3
• Browns -2
• Jets -2
• Giants -2

Blitz Packages

Defensive Lineman

• DE Kenny Mixon/Viking DL
  The Vikes draw the Cardinals, who have been allowing a whopping 5 sacks/week the past 3 weeks. Start your Viking DL as much as possible, as well as WLB Henri Crokett, who has a high chance of getting one as well. 1-2 sacks and 3-5 tackles for the fat boys up front.



• DE Julius Peppers/Panther DL
  Peppers' streak should continue against a young and demoralized Giant OL. 2 sacks, 4-6 tackles for these guys.



• DE Justin Smith/Bengal DL
  Time for a Smith appearance. He hasn't lived up to the hype he got his rookie campaign, but the past month he has 3 sacks and 21 total tackles. Against a porous Brown OL, he should get 1 sack and 3-5 tackles. This is a risky start, since he has been so inconsistent in the past.



• DE Kenard Lang/Browns DL
  The Bengals OL hasn't exactly set the world on fire, either. They are allowing over 3 sacks per week too. Lang has been a steady performer, and should be able to get 1 sack and 2-4 tackles.



• DE Richard Seymour/Patriot DL
  This isn't the greatest trend in the world, but I wanted to make you all aware of it. The Patriots face a Bill OL (and very immobile QB), who are allowing 3/sacks week. However, the LBs have a better chance of getting the sacks due to NE's scheme. So this is a risky start, but the trend is there if you need to make the risk.

Linebackers

• OLB Mike Vrabel/Willie McGinest NE
  The Patriots have a high likelihood of getting some decent sack production this week against Mr. Statue, AKA Drew Bledsoe. The Bills are giving up over 3 sacks/week, and the Patriots defensive scheme is such that it should be the OLBs who get them. 6-9 tackles and a sack. And McGinest is a DL half the time, who has been performing well lately too.



• SLB Boss Bailey DET
  The TOP favors production for Lion D players. However, they have been very disappointing based on how they have played and how much better they should be because of the offensive woes. Bailey has been a lone bright spot. In fact, given how much they have needed speed at the LB position, I wouldn't be surprised to see them switch him to WLB next year. This week, give him 7-1-0.



• Anthony Simmons/Randall Godfrey/Seahawk LBs
  The TOP again favors them, so their production should be close to what it was last week. 6-10 tackles and a sack.

Defensive Backs

• FS Brock Marion/CB Patrick Surtain/Dolphin DBs
  QB Pennington has been dreadful the past month, throwing 0 TDs and six picks. That trend will end, but until it does you start the DBs facing him. This week it's the fins.



• FS Lance Schulters/CB Samari Rolle/Titan DBs
  The Titans face the Bucs. Brad Johnson has almost as many INTs' (5) as he does TDs (6). That gives the Titans a great chance to get 1-2 picks this week.



• FS Earl Little/CB Daylon McCutcheon/Browns DBs
  This is my risk start for DBs. Kitna WILL throw interceptions if you can rattle him enough into making bad decisions. So IF the Browns can rattle him, these DBs have a good chance to get 1-2 interceptions.

Defensive Rankings

• Ranking scoring system
  • Any turnover recovery: 3
  
  
  
  • Any forced fumble/solo tackle/half sack: 2
  
  
  
  • Any pass defensed/assist: 1
  
  
  
  • Full sacks: 4
  
  
  
  • Safety: 3
  
  
  

Top 24 DL

1. Michael Strahan NYG - Yearly consistency puts him here.



2. Jason Taylor MIA - This year has to be a fluke.



3. Simeon Rice TB - Two solid years of production now.



4. Willie McGinest NE - Consistent producer.



5. Mike Rucker CAR - Consistent, but injury concerns.



6. Shaun Ellis NYJ - needs help from healthy linemates, but great when he gets it.



7. Leonard Little STL - not a lot of tackles, but nice sack totals.



8. Jason Ferguson NYJ - Great when healthy.



9. Aaron Schobel BUF - Risky here, but young and talented.



10. Charles Grant NO - Same as Schobel.



11. Julius Peppers CAR - Will he continue sophomore success, or become the next Kearse?



12. Alex Brown CHI - Athletic end is a threat on all levels.



13. Pat Williams BUF - Consistent tackler.



14. Kelly Gregg BAL - Same as Williams.



15. Adwale Ogunleye MIA - Great upside, but did he do well in 03 at Taylor's expense?



16. Grant Wistrom STL - Consistent, but hasn't yet made the jump to next level.



17. Kenard Lang CLE - Has had one good year, but can he do it again?



18. John Henderson JAX - Seems to be finally playing up to his talent.



19. Ndukwe Kalu PHI - Seems poised to succeed Douglas.



20. Dwight Freeney IND - Will the real Freeney please stand up?



21. Kalimba Edwards DET - Same as Freeney.



22. Tyler Brayton OAK - Nice dynasty/keeper prospect.



23. Justin Smith CIN - Is it him, or lack of help at DL? Too talented not to list.



24. Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila GB - Inconsistent; will he finally turn the corner?

Top 36 LB

1. Ray Lewis BAL - Top LB last two of three years.



2. Zach Thomas MIA - Very consistent; lower value if you don't get assists.



3. Brian Urlacher CHI - I think bad play earlier in 03 was due to scheme.



4. Jamie Sharper HOU - As long as the team stays bad, he'll be a top 10 performer.



5. Donnie Edwards SD - Has been great as successor to Seau.



6. London Fletcher BUF - Consistent top producer.



7. David Thornton IND - Dungy's scheme keeps him a top play maker.



8. Keith Bulluck TEN - Nice play now that he lives in the middle.



9. Keith Brooking ATL - Health concerns but solid when there.



10. Shawn Barber KC - Most consistent KC LB.



11. Jay Foreman HOU - Solid player and a good guy to build your fantasy D around.



12. Al Wilson DEN - Injuries knock him down a few spots.



13. Dat Nguyen DAL - Seems to wear down during the year.



14. Mike Barrow NYG - Performance based on offensive woes; if they stop, he drops.



15. Eric Barton OAK - This team isn't getting better for a couple years, so he produces.



16. Tedy Bruschi NE - Injuries a concern.



17. Derek m Smith SF - Solid performer.



18. Nick Barnett GB - A risk here, but he's very talented.



19. Akinola Ayodele JAX - Should keep producing at 03 level.



20. Ian Gold DEN - Injuries a concern, but talent proven.



21. Terrell Suggs BAL - Risky here, but his talent since starting is proven.



22. Scott Fujita KC - Inconsistency a worry.



23. Brian Simmons CIN - Should get 100+ tackles again in 04.



24. Jeremiah Trotter WAS - More consistent than Arrington.



25. Roosevelt Colvin NE - Value hurt by injury risk.



26. Takeo Spikes BUF - Since he's splitting time, he's now a #2 LB.



27. Anthony Simmons SEA - Injuries reduce value.



28. Andra Davis CLE - It's LB-by-roulette in Cleveland.



29. James Farrior PIT - Don't overvalue him based on 03.



30. Dhani Jones NYG - See Farrior.



31. Derrick Brooks TB - Great playmaking ability, but value killed by Dungy leaving.



32. Kendrell Bell PIT - Good fill in player, but too inconsistent otherwise.



33. Gerald Hayes ARI - Taking this risk because I think he will start and do well in 04.



34. Julian Peterson SF - Good supporting fantasy LB for your LB corps.



35. Travian Smith OAK - Intriguing prospect for 04.



36. E.J. Henderson MIN - Young guy worth a risk here.

Top 24 DB

1. Rodney Harrison NE - Consistent at a volatile position.



2. Brian Dawkins PHI - Injuries shouldn't get him again.



3. Ronde Barber TB - Keeps performing well; top 10 2 of last 3 years.



4. Adam Archuleta STL - See Rodney Harrison.



5. Darren Sharper GB - Injuries lower his value here.



6. Lawyer Milloy NE - See Harrison.



7. Fred Thomas NO - gets thrown at a lot; nice PD totals.



8. Dexter Jackson ARI - Risky here, but shouldn't pull an Adrian Wilson on you.



9. Antoine Winfield BUF - Steady and healthy performer.



10. Mike Minter CAR - Good playmaking ability.



11. Mike Doss IND - Will get better as he learns more.



12. Lance Schulters TEN - Good producer and home run threat.



13. Ed Reed BAL - Which Reed will we get, the 02 or 03 version? Talent says he's here.



14. Roy Williams DAL - See Reed.



15. Brian Russell MIN - Don't over value, but should stay hungry enough to produce.



16. Sam Garnes NYJ - Steady #2 DB.



17. Sammy Knight NO - Inconsistency knocks him down here.



18. Ken Hamlin SEA - Nice hitter, but can he discipline himself?



19. Ifeanyi Ohalete WAS - Nice gamble due to likely 04 production.



20. Nick Harper IND - Can a CB do it again?



21. Chris Cash DET - Great producer when healthy.



22. Michael Lewis PHI - Good #2 DB with upside.



23. Aneas Williams STL - Consistent but age a big factor.



24. Jay Bellamy NO - See A. Williams.