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Offensive Upgrades, Aberrations and Downgrades

With just one game left in the NFL season, Clayton and I feel that it is pointless to upgrade and downgrade players. This list will simply match the Cheatsheets that will be released on Wednesday.

Instead of the normal article, we have decided to talk about some intriguing situations going into 2004. This is not a complete list but just a few of the situations you may want to pay close attention to for next year.

Intriguing 2004 Players

QB Jake Plummer (Den) - It has been quite a season for Plummer as he is enjoying arguably his best season as a pro (his QB rating of 91.2 is currently a full 20 points higher than his career average and easily betters his 2nd highest rating of 79.6 in 2001). Plummer was playing very well before being injured but has been a bit inconsistent since returning. Conventional wisdom would have him even more settled next year in his 2nd season as a Bronco.

The Colts QB Situation - Most people just assume that manning will be that guy. But that could be the farthest from the truth. Here is a very interesting article regarding this dilemma. It is too early to speculate what this all means, but it could dramatically raise the stock of any QB that starts in Indianapolis.

QB Byron Leftwich (Jac) - He has grown up a lot this season and has shown nice poise for a rookie. With more off-season work and continued study of the playbook, Leftwich could become a viable fantasy option starting as early as next year.

QB Jon Kitna (Cin) - He had a great season and should have cemented his role as the starter for next season, but there is this little issue of the team drafting Carson Palmer first last year. This will be a very interesting story line all offseason. Typically the big contract guy ends up as the starter. Kitna is too valuable to be 2nd string though and could be traded to a number of teams in the offseason.

QB Drew Henson (Hou) - He has been out of football for a long time, but he had great skills in college. We expect someone to want him very badly.

RB Kevan Barlow (SF) - Barlow fanatics have been waiting for this explosion for a long time. The argument has always been that Barlow would explode if given the full-time job, and three weeks ago, the argument was finally put to the test. Barlow responded loudly with 66 rushes, 393 rushing yards, 12 catches, 122 receiving yards, and five TDs. Even more importantly, the 49ers have scored 119 points in that three-game span. Those kinds of numbers make fantasy owners salivate, but his 2004 status if very much dependant upon what uniform Garrison Hearst is wearing.

RB Quentin Griffin (Den) - Here is another talented young back that has been in a log-jam all season. Griffin looked Barry Sandersesque last night against a bewildered Colts defense, but there will be no room to run in 2004 stuck behind Clinton Portis in Denver. There's always the chance that Griffin could be traded to another team, but Mike Shanahan has a record of holding onto his backs rather than trading them. Still, Griffin makes for an interesting 2004 player.

RB Onterrio Smith (Min) - Smith has gained 294 rushing yards in his last two games. It is performances like these that people expected from him to most of the season. Of course, he's only getting an opportunity due to Michael Bennett's injury. If both backs are in Minnesota (and healthy) next year, Smith obviously won't have much value. However, if he or Bennett is elsewhere, Smith would have a ton of potential.

RB Willis McGahee (Buf) - How in the world does one keep both McGahee and Travis Henry happy? That is the dilemma that the Bills have. Travis Henry has been a monster this year despite playing a lot of the season on a broken leg. McGahee was the MAN in college and could be a force in the NFL now that he is fully recovered. Although the Bills would love to keep both of these backs, we think they won't be able to afford them both longterm (but could likely make it work in 2004).

RB LaBrandon Toefield (Jac) - Fred Taylor has stayed healthy for two complete seasons, but he is not as explosive as he once was. He has not been the goal line back for many years now and might face serious competition from a hard runner in LaBrandon Toefield.

RB Rudi Johnson (Cin) showed enough in his limited carries that the Bengals could look to move Corey Dillon in the offseason. Even if they do not, he looks like he will have a bigger role in 2004.

RB LaDell Betts (was) never got on track this season, but was looking great in training camp before getting hurt. he then had an explosive game against the jets to start the season, before battling through many ailments. Trung canodate does not look like the right back for the Spurrier offense so someone like Betts could be valuable next season.

WR Charles Lee (TB) - Lee looks like the Buccaneers' WR of the future. At 6'2 210, he just makes plays and is a solid target at the goal line. The Buccaneers should be a better team next season as the pressure to repeat will be gone, they won't have the big Super Bowl Champs targets on their chests, and there surely will be fewer distractions. As a starter in Jon Gruden's offense, Lee should be a good value selection.

WR Brandon Lloyd (SF) - It appears that the 49ers are resigned to allow Terrell Owens and Tai Streets to hit the road this off-season. By most accounts, Lloyd is well liked by the San Francisco organization and should be a starter in 2004. His current 2003 stats (11 catches for 149 yards and a pair of TDs) will not cause much stir so he should be a bargain on draft day. His situation screams of late-round steal.

WR Kassim Osgood (SD) - Only by playing with the likes of David Boston would Osgood not be considered a huge WR. Forget that, at 6'5 209 lbs, Osgood is huge. He should have a starting job in 2004, but he is probably not going to produce quality stats until 2005. He just looks like he needs a good year of starting experience before he will fully develop. That said, if San Diego can settle their QB situation, Osgood could turn in some great games next season (as evidenced by his 102 yards and a TD yesterday).

WR Jerry Porter (Oak) - Everything that could go wrong this season for Porter and the Raiders did. Porter's hernia season set him back to start the year, and he really hasn't been able to recover from it. To top it off, Oakland's entire offense has sputtered at best in 2003, and the entire team has suffered through countless injuries. They may not be an explosive team in 2004, but the Raiders offense should improve. A healthy Porter will be a key player in that offense.

WR Peerless Price (Atl) - He was supposed to be quite the hookup with Michael Vick tossing him bombs all year long. Obviously, Vick's injury put the clamps on that connection, but there was one play against the Buccaneers that flashed what could have been (and what could be in 2004). With such a disastrous 2003 campaign, Price should have a good bit of value this off-season.

WR Charles Rogers (Det) - Rogers is no doubt a great talent (22 catches for 243 yards and three TDs in only five games this season…at least four catches in each game). His rookie season was cut short by the broken collarbone, but he should be 100% healthy to start the 2004 campaign. With such small 2003 season stats, he'll fly under the radar for a lot of people. That will only make him a more attractive late round steal.

WR Bethel Johnson (NE) - He is fast and explosive, but is currently the odd man out. Next year could be his year to shine opposite of Deion Branch in this offense. Troy Brown has now lost significant time in both of the last two years.

TE Boo Williams (NO) - Since Ernie Conwell left with broken ankle, Williams has been an elite fantasy TE (23 catches for 313 yards and 4 TDs in five weeks). His 2004 status is not set in stone, however, as it is not fully known if he will be the starter. Conwell could return, or the Saints could bring in another free agent TE. All things considered, Williams should be their guy, and he should be huge.

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