Passing Matchups

Hi Folks,

Here's our look at the Passing Matchups for this week.

PLEASE NOTE: This does NOT replace the Cheatsheet ranking. The Cheatsheet rankings are the final say on where we see a player for that week. The Matchup Breakdowns are simply one more tool in the box when it comes to helping choose your lineup.

Also note, just because a player has a "bad" matchup, it does NOT mean he's not a starter in your league. If Steve McNair is playing the toughest pass defense in the league, that just means he's got a tough matchup that week. He's also your starter unless you're loaded at QB. In the same way, if the worst QB on your roster has a "great" matchup that week, it doesn't necessarily mean he's your starter. It means we think he'll fare better than normal that week.

Bottom line is that the cheatsheets are the final say.

Let's jump to it.

Joe

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Playoff Week 1 Passing Matchups

By Mark Wimer with Joe Bryant

Green Bay's Passing Game vs. The Seattle Defense (Good Matchup)

Brett Favre seems to have fully adjusted to the discomforts caused by his thumb injury in recent weeks, and finished 2003 white-hot, with 57/84 for 793 yards, 9 TDs and only 2 interceptions in his final 3 games, including a fantastic 22/30 for 399 yards, 4 TD and 0 interceptions effort against the Raiders in week 16. Last week, with Green and company trampling the Broncos (34/262/2), Favre didn't need to throw a whole lot (12/21 for 116 yards, 1 TD and 1 interception) - none-the-less, he is one of the hottest players in the playoff pool. Javon Walker has been "the Man" over the past two games, hauling in long passes (4/124/2 with a long of 46 in the week 16 game, 3/41/0 in the laugher over the Broncos week 17) and scores with regularity (9/191/2 in the final 3 weeks of 2003). TE's Wesley Walls, David Martin and Bubba Franks all have a TD score to their credit over the past 2 games, as well.

Back in week 5, Favre tossed 19/25 for 185 yards, 2 TD' s and 0 interceptions against the Seahawks - Donald Driver led the team with 7/72/1 that day (William Henderson caught the other TD, 3/28/1) - Driver has 12/210/1 receiving over the final 3 weeks of the season, so he's still a big part of what the Packers are doing at the end of the season - he may be in for another big game this week - last time around, the Seahawks' Marcus Trufant struggled to cover Driver (and Trufant has been up and down in recent weeks as well).

Seattle's pass D has not been good during 2003, ranking 27th in the NFL allowing an average of 217.5 passing yards per contest - they have also given away 24 passing scores to date, the most out of the 12 playoff-bound teams. They did manage 40 sacks this year (tied for 7th in the NFL), with a middling 16 interceptions (tied for 12th in the NFL). Green Bay is tied for 2nd-least in the sacks allowed department (19 all season) - they are a good pass-blocking team, which may make it hard for the Seahawks to bring a lot of pressure in this game. In Seattle's final two games of the season, Jeff Garcia managed 22/38 for 248 yards, 2 TDs and 1 interception, while Josh McCown tossed 25/40 for 274 yards, 1 TD and 0 interceptions - the Seahawks haven't turned it up a notch in the weeks heading into the playoffs, obviously.

Seattle's reserve DB Willie Williams (foot) missed the game last week. DE Chike Okeafor (ankle) and S Reggie Tongue (hamstring) are both probable. DT Rocky Bernard (toe) is questionable.

For Green Bay, starting WR Robert Ferguson has been nursing an Achilles' injury and missed last weeks game for the Packers. He's probable for this week. Reserve WR/KR Antonio Chatman was knocked woozy during the game last week but looks to be fine. WR Donald Driver (ankle) and WR Javon Walker (knee/hamstring) are both probable.

The forecast for Lambeau Field calls for a high of 23F and a low of 9F with a 10% chance for precipitation. Welcome to the arctic cold, Seahawks! At least the field shouldn't be slick. However, the ball will be as hard as a rock, which can cause ball-handling problems in the passing game (gripping the ball and so forth).

Favre and the Packers are firing on all cylinders, while the Seahawks continue to struggle at pass defense - this looks like a good matchup for the Pack.

Baltimore's Passing Game vs. The Tennessee Defense (Neutral Matchup)

The last time these teams met, Jeff Blake was the Ravens' starter, so a lot has changed since week 12 of 2002 for the Ravens. Todd Heap led the team with 4/42/0 that day, for what it is worth.

This year, Anthony Wright has emerged as the Raven's surprise starting QB (he began the year at #3) - in his limited role as (primarily) the guy who hands the ball off to Jamal Lewis, Wright has put up modest numbers - 38/72 for 446 yards, 2 TDs and 3 interceptions during the past 3 weeks. He looked pretty off-target last week, hitting Marcus Robinson for 6/102/0, but failing to deliver the ball in stride - when Robinson had a clear shot at the end-zone - more than once last week. Wright closed the day with 16/27 for 163 yards, 0 TDs and 1 interception. Nobody else broke 25 yards receiving in the game.

The Titans are not a dominating secondary this season, ranking 30th in the NFL allowing an average of 225.4 passing yards per game (30th in the NFL), with 20 passing scores given away to date. They have notched 38 sacks this season (9th in the NFL) and 21 interceptions (8th in the NFL), so the Titans do get pressure on the opposing passer and generate turnovers regularly. Baltimore has given up 41 sacks this season - they can be susceptible to such tactics.

Baltimore lists TE John Jones (hip) and WR Frank Sanders (back) as questionable. C Mike Flynn (ankle) and RB Chester Taylor (knee) are probable.

Tennessee lists LB Rocky Calmus (leg), DE Jevon Kearse (hip) and LB Jordan Kramer (ankle) as questionable but you know that doesn't mean much from Jeff Fisher.

The forecast for M & T Bank Stadium calls for a high of 54F and a low of 46F with a 40% chance for precipitation. If the rain comes down hard around game time, footing and ball handling will be more troublesome than usual.

The Ravens mount a modest passing offense, and the Titans tend to be soft in this phase (although they do go after the passer and try for interceptions) - we call it fairly even before the fact.

Dallas' Passing Game vs. The Carolina Defense (Neutral Matchup)

One thing that Quincy Carter has not done in the recent past: he has not struggled to throw the ball against the Panthers. In week 12 of 2003, Carter notched 29/44 for 254 yards, 2 TDs (one to Joey Galloway, the other to Jeff Robinson) and 1 interception. In week 6 of 2002, Carter pitched 15/32 for 225 yards, 2 TDs and 1 interception - Galloway and Antonio Bryant caught the TDs that day. Whatever else may be true about Carter's efforts, he has enjoyed good success against the Panthers.

To close out the regular season, the Cowboys struggled against the Saints, with 3 interceptions marring Carter's 27/47 for 290 yards, 1 TD performance. FB Richie Anderson led the team in receiving last week, with 10/83/1 - Terry Glenn, Bryant and Galloway combined for 7 catches and 133 yards. Carter has tossed 54/96 for 638 yards, 3 TDs and 3 interceptions (with 14/61/1 rushing) in the final 3 games of 2003 - not exactly scintillating numbers, that's for certain.

The Panthers ranked in the top-10 of NFL secondaries this season, allowing an average of 187.7 passing yards per game (9th in the NFL), with 19 scores given away to date. They are tied for 7th in the league with 40 sacks to date, and have notched a mediocre 16 interceptions (12th in the NFL). Dallas allowed 37 sacks in 2003 (14th in the NFL), so the Panthers should be able to pressure Carter to some extent on Saturday. Jesse Palmer and the Giants stumbled to a 18/43 for 110 yards, 2 TD and 4 interceptions performance against the Panthers last week - two weeks ago, Detroit was embarrassed to post 7/19 for 53 yards, 0 TDs and 1 interception against Carolina. The Panthers closed out the regular season strongly in this phase of the game.

Carolina's starting CB Terry Cousin has been resting his injured leg recently but he's not on the injury report this week. DT Brentson Buckner is probable (knee).

Dallas is in good health coming into this game with no offensive players even on the injury report.

The forecast for Ericsson Stadium calls for a high of 57F and a low of 50F with a 30% chance for precipitation. If the rain comes down hard around game time, footing and ball handling will be more troublesome than usual.

Carter has been playing pretty mediocre ball lately, but has enjoyed good success against the Panthers in the past. The Panthers generally play well in this phase of the game, and closed the regular season very strongly - this looks like a fairly even matchup to us.

Denver's Passing Game vs. The Indianapolis Defense (Neutral Matchup)

Jake Plummer took the week off against the Packers - but two weeks ago, he was a one-man wrecking crew against the Colts, with 14/17 for 238 yards, 1 TD and 0 interceptions passing and 6/22/2 rushing (the interception was returned for a defensive TD). Denver crushed the Colts 31-17, setting the stage for this re-match. Of course, in 2002, Plummer was a Cardinal, so we'll stick with this year's game for comparison's sake.

In recent games, Ashley Lelie has finally emerged as a top pass-catching threat for Plummer (good thing, too, as Ed McCaffrey suffered his second concussion in 3 games last week). They hooked up for 5/115/0 against the Colts two weeks ago, and Lelie has 11/199/0 over the past 3 games for the Broncos. Rod Smith (8/83/1 in 2 games) and Shannon Sharpe (10/127/0 in 2 games) round out the usual suspects for the Broncos.

Indianapolis has played the pass tough, by and large, in 2003, with an average of only 175.6 passing yards allowed per game (with 18 scores surrendered). They have only generated 31 sacks, though (23rd in the NFL), with a mediocre 15 interceptions (tied for 14th). The Broncos don't give up many sacks (25 this season), so Plummer should enjoy time to survey the field on Sunday. David Carr had a hard time with the Colts in week 17, with 13/23 for 105 yards, 0 TDs and 1 interception - they finished the year strong.

Indianapolis' starting S Mike Doss (ankle) and reserve DB Cory Bird (shoulder) missed the game last week. Both are questionable for this week. CB Cliff Crosby (groin) and LB Marcus Washington (chest) are also questionable. Indy lists three cornerbacks Nick Harper (back); Walt Harris (knee) and Donald Strickland (back/shoulder) as probable. Safety Idrees Bashir (shoulder/arm) is also probable.

For Denver, McCaffrey has another concussion as noted above, and is listed as questionable. RB Clinton Portis is probable with his ankle.

This game is to be played in the RCA Dome, so weather is not an issue.

Denver had their way with the Colts two weeks ago, but the Colts are usually tough in this phase - and now they know what to expect. Home-field advantage levels the playing field in this game - we call it fairly even before the fact.

Indianapolis' Passing Game vs. The Denver Defense (Neutral Matchup)

The wheels came off and the engine fell out against the Broncos two weeks ago - the usually prolific Colts' attack sputtered to an embarrassing 12/23 for 146 yards, 0 TDs and 0 interceptions performance (with 3 fumbles by Manning and an uncharacteristic 2 sacks allowed). In week 12 of 2002, Manning tossed 27/44 for 229 yards, 0 TDs and 1 interception against the Broncos (Harrison had 11/107/0 to lead the team) - the Colts haven't had much luck against the Denver secondary in their most recent meetings.

Other than the horrible week 16 game against these Broncos, Manning has been pretty solid to close the season, with 63/91 for 656 yards, 6 TDs and 1 interception in his last 3 games, including 26/38 for 220 yards, 1 TD and 1 interception in the close win over Houston last week. Brandon Stokley snagged 9/67/1 last week to lead the team, while Harrison (2/34/0) and Reggie Wayne (3/32/0) were relatively quiet. Marcus Pollard continues to contribute with 4/30/0 last week and 11/109/0 during the last 3 games.

Denver is the 6th ranked pass D in the NFL after the regular season, allowing 176.8 passing yards per game on average (with 17 scores surrendered to date). They have generated 36 sacks (13th in the NFL), but only 9 interceptions this season (32nd). This is not a ball-hawking secondary. Indianapolis has allowed the second-least number of sacks in the NFL this season (19), so Manning doesn't usually take 2 sacks in a game like he did 2 weeks ago. Denver allowed 12/21 for 116 yards, 1 TD and 1 interception to Brett Favre in the "B" team game last week.

Denver's starting CB Kelly Herndon missed last weeks' game with broken bones in his hand but he's probable for this week. S Nick Ferguson (broken wrist) is on IR - both guys played in the game vs. Indy week 16. DT Darius Holland is probable with ribs.

For the Colts, TE Dallas Clark (ankle) is out. TE Marcus Pollard (knee) and RB Dominic Rhodes (knee/shoulder) are both probable.

This game is to be played in the RCA Dome, so weather is not an issue.

The Colts were embarrassed two weeks ago, and the Broncos are definitely a stout pass D. At home in the playoffs, we believe the Colts have enough talent to rebound, though - this is a neutral matchup between two top units.

Carolina's Passing Game vs. The Dallas Defense (Tough Matchup)

Jake Delhomme and the Panthers were forced to pass a lot in the first game against Dallas this season (week 12) - and Delhomme had a fairly tough time responding, with 9/24 for 175 yards, 1 TD and 1 interception. Steve Smith led the way with 4/73/0 (Brad Hoover caught the TD, 1/1/1), but it wasn't a strong game for the Panthers' aerial unit. In 2002, Delhomme was a Saint, so the week 6 game between Dallas and Carolina is moot for our purposes looking at this matchup.

Delhomme finished the season in an up-beat manner, with 29/35 for 260 yards, 2 TDs and 1 interception vs. Detroit two weeks ago, and 16/30 for 191 yards, 2 TDs and 1 interception last week against the Giants. 65/97 for 687 yards, 5 TDs and 3 interceptions were his totals over the final 3 weeks of 2003 - he's been steadily productive in the closing weeks. Muhsin Muhammad (12/160/1), Ricky Proehl (8/93/1), and Steve Smith (16/196/1) have led the way in the closing weeks as the Panthers' trio of WR's.

Dallas, of course, plays very tough pass D, allowing an average of only 164.4 passing yards per game this season (1st in the NFL), while surrendering 18 passing scores to date. They only managed 32 sacks and 13 interceptions (21st and 25th ranked, respectively) in 2003, so they do their damage by playing excellent cover schemes, rather than rushing the passer or gambling to make interceptions. 15/33 for 243 yards, 1 TD and 0 interceptions was what Aaron Brooks managed last week - two weeks ago, Jesse Palmer hit 18/32 for 190 yards, 0 TDs and 0 interceptions. This is one of the toughest pass D's in the league, no doubt about it.

Both teams come into the game in relatively good health. The only offensive player Carolina lists on the injury report is TE Marco Battaglia (knee).

The lone player on Dallas' injury report is CB Andrew Davison who is out with a knee injury.

The Panthers are on a mini-roll in this phase of the game, but the Cowboys make it tough on everyone they play. Advantage, Dallas.

Seattle's Passing Game vs. The Green Bay Defense (Tough Matchup)

Matt Hasselbeck and the Seahawks didn't do much against the Packers back in week 5 this season, putting up 23/39 for 225 yards, 0 TDs and 1 interception in the blowout loss (35-13). When they did connect in the passing game, the teams' trio of WR's led the way (Koren Robinson had 8/76/0; Darrell Jackson had 4/58/0; and Bobby Engram managed 3/45/0 that day).

Hasselbeck closed the season strong, throwing 24/37 for 315 yards, 2 TDs and 2 interceptions against the 49'ers in week 17. He hit Robinson (6/85/1), TE Itula Mili (5/47/0), Jackson (4/54/0) and Engram (4/27/0) the most last week (the other TD went to WR Alex Bannister, 2/53/1). Hasselbeck has fought through injury and adversity to post 62/98 for 740 yards, 4 TDs and 4 interceptions during his final 3 games of the 2003 regular season - he's not on a hot streak coming into this game, but neither is he stone cold.

Green Bay has been pretty generous in this phase all season, allowing 212.5 passing yards per contest on average, with 18 TDs surrendered to date. They closed the season strongly, against the Denver "B" team (Jarious Jackson and Danny Kanell combined for 13/27 for 102 yards, 0 TDs and 2 interceptions) and the Oakland "parade of backups" (Rick Mirer, Rob Johnson and Tee Martin managed 22/41 for 223 yards, 0 TDs and 2 interceptions). Let's just say that the Packers' secondary hasn't really been tested at the close of the season and leave it at that.

For Green Bay, CB Mike McKenzie (toe) and DE Chukie Nwokorie (wrist) are both questionable. LB Marcus Wilkins (calf) is doubtful. CB All Harris (knee) is probable. DT Gilbert Brown (knee) and LB Na'il Diggs (shoulder) are both probable.

For Seattle, WR Darrell Jackson is probable with an ankle.

Hasselbeck and company had a hard time with the Packers in week 5 - now it's the dead of winter, and they have to visit the hostile confines of Lambeau field in arctic conditions. On balance, this looks like a tough matchup for the visitors.

Tennessee's Passing Game vs. The Baltimore Defense (Tough Matchup)

Back in week 12 of 2002, these rivals played to a close 13-12 decision (Baltimore won). Steve McNair had a rough game, with 21/43 for 283 yards, 0 TDs and 3 interceptions - none of the Titans' current receivers caught more than 4 balls and all were held to under 50 yards receiving in that game (Andre Dyson had 4/87/0, but he's gone now). Week 12 of 2002 was a long time ago though.

Lately, Tennessee has been holding their breath that McNair can take the field from week to week (right calf and left ankle injuries are plaguing him). Last week, the Titans put Neil O'Donnell on the field to rest McNair, and he filled in admirably against the Buccaneers (18/27 for 232 yards, 2 TDs and 1 interception) and their tough secondary. Derrick Mason was O'Donnell's main man, with 6/90/2 receiving on the day (he has 19/271/2 over the last 3 games of 2003). Eddie George chipped in with 4/45/0. When McNair has been under center, he's been solid (17/36 for 268 yards, 2 TDs and 1 interception in week 16 vs. Houston - Drew Bennett (5/84/1), Justin McCareins (2/82/0) and Mason (4/44/0) were his top receivers that day. Whoever the Titans play (they plan on McNair starting - how long he will be able to go remains to be seen), they will have a capable QB under center to rely on. McNair was expected to practice in Wednesday's session, according to the Tennessean. It will be his first practice in 3 weeks.

Baltimore fields the 4th ranked pass D in the NFL, allowing an average of 175.3 yards per contest (19 scores surrendered to date). They lead the league in sacks (47), and are 4th with 24 interceptions to their credit. Tennessee has allowed the relatively modest total of 25 sacks this season, so they aren't too vulnerable to pass-rushers. Cleveland (17/33 for 163 yards, 0 TDs and 1 interception) and Pittsburgh (15/29 for 189 yards, 1 TD and 3 interceptions) both struggled against the Ravens in the closing weeks of the regular season - they are a very solid, all-around pass defense.

Aside from McNair's woes, starting WR Justin McCariens suffered a mild concussion last week (on a hit from John Lynch), and reserve WR's Jake Schifino (leg) and Eddie Berlin (concussion) missed the game last week. Berlin has been sitting out the early practices this week. Starting TE Frank Wycheck injured his ribs during the game, as well - the Titans are pretty banged up, and were perilously thin at WR last week. All these guys, plus WR Tyrone Calico (knee) are questionable. But remember, Jeff Fisher's "questionable" means little. Stay tuned through the week as we monitor each of these players.

Baltimore lists only LB Peter Boulware (knee) as questionable on defense.

The Titans have battled through adversity to make the playoffs this season, and McNair is a true grid-iron warrior. However, this looks like a tall mountain for Tennessee to climb - visiting a old, bitter rival's home field in the play-offs, with a banged-up crew to boot. Advantage, Baltimore.