Passing Matchups

PLEASE NOTE: This does NOT replace the Cheatsheet ranking. The Cheatsheet rankings are the final say on where we see a player for that week. The Matchup Breakdowns are simply one more tool in the box when it comes to helping choose your lineup.

Also note, just because a player has a "bad" matchup, it does NOT mean he's not a starter in your league. If Peyton Manning is playing the toughest pass defense in the league, that just means he's got a tough matchup that week. He's also your starter unless you're loaded at QB. In the same way, if the worst QB on your roster has a "great" matchup that week, it doesn't necessarily mean he's your starter. It means we think he'll fare better than normal that week.

Bottom line is that the cheatsheets are the final say.

Let's jump to it.

Joe

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Playoff Week 2 Passing Matchups

By Mark Wimer with Joe Bryant

Indianapolis' Passing Attack vs. The Kansas City Defense (Good Matchup)

Way back in week 7 of 2001, these two teams met in a 35-28 shootout (the Colts won) -Peyton Manning was 19/30 for 201 yards, 2 TDs and 0 interceptions. The scores went to Marvin Harrison (8/98/1) and Marcus Pollard (1/6/1), while Reggie Wayne was 2nd on the team in receiving (5/63/0).

Peyton Manning threw a perfect game (according to the NFL passer rating system) against the Broncos to open the playoffs. The numbers were as follows: 22/26 for 377 yards, 5 TDs and 0 interceptions. Awesome, just awesome - all this, against a defense that held him to 12/23 for 146 yards, 0 TDs and 0 interceptions just two weeks prior. Marvin Harrison (7/133/2), Brandon Stokley (4/144/2 including an 87 yard pitch and catch for a TD), and Reggie Wayne (5/43/1) simply embarrassed the Broncos - especially on the bone-headed play where no one bothered to touch Marvin Harrison on the ground, preferring to stand around and argue while he got up and ran the ball into the end-zone.

The Chiefs play pretty mediocre pass D, allowing an average of 210.2 passing yards per game (20th in the NFL) while surrendering 19 passing scores in 16 games. They generated 36 sacks this season (13th in the NFL) and 25 interceptions (3rd in the league). However, the Colts allowed only 19 sacks all year (second-best in the NFL), and Manning tossed only 10 interceptions in 16 games, so the Chief's strengths don't match up well against the Colts' game. Chris Chandler, Kordell Stewart and Rex Grossman combined for 17/42 for 198 yards, 0 TDs and 2 interceptions in the season finale, but Daunte Culpepper exploited the Chiefs for 20/30 for 260 yards, 3 TDs and 1 interception in week 16 - the Chiefs have been up and down in their most recent games, and they had trouble containing the talented Vikings' duo of Culpepper and Moss. One thing to keep in mind about Arrowhead Stadium: the Chiefs won all 8 of their regular season games at home this season, and have won 13 in a row at home dating to last year. They have a huge home-field advantage thanks to their noisy and knowledgeable fans - calling an audible (something Manning does a lot) in Arrowhead Stadium is hard for visiting teams to accomplish.

TE Dallas Clark is out due to his fractured leg/ankle injury. WR Brandon Stokley has a sore ankle (probable).

The forecast for Arrowhead Stadium calls for a high of 48° F and a low of 26° F with a 30% chance for precipitation. If the rain comes down hard (only showers are currently forecast) around game time, the field will become sloppy and ball handling becomes more of an issue.

The Colts have an extremely talented bunch that comes into this game on a tear and they are relatively healthy to boot. The Chiefs have trouble containing top attacks: an advantage lies with the Indianapolis crew in this matchup, but home field advantage will work against the Colts and limit Manning's ability to call audibles.

New England's Passing Attack vs. The Tennessee Defense (Good Matchup)

These two teams know each other about as well as non-divisional rivals can: since New England's 2001 championship season (during which the two teams did not meet), Tennessee has split two games with the Patriots. The Titans won 24-7 in week 15 of 2002, but lost 38-30 in week 5 of 2003. This past regular season, Tom Brady put up 17/31 for 219 yards, 1 TD and 0 interceptions - in 2002, he notched 14/29 for 134 yards, 0 TDs and 1 interception. Deion Branch led the Patriots this season vs. the Titans, with 5/68/0 (Troy Brown caught the TD, though, 2/64/1), while Troy Brown was tops in 2002 with 8/73/0.

Tom Brady closed out 2003 on a roll, including a 21/32 for 204 yards, 4 TDs and 0 interception gem in week 17 vs. Buffalo (to avenge the Patriots' season-opening 31-0 loss). David Givens (7/80/1), Troy Brown (5/52/1), Bethel Johnson (1/9/1) and Daniel Graham (1/1/1) split the 4 scores among themselves. Brady has as hot a hand as any quarterback in the playoff pool coming into this game.

Tennessee has a suspect secondary that allowed an average of 225.4 passing yards per game in 2003 (30th in the NFL, worst of any team in the playoff pool), while surrendering 20 passing scores in 16 games. Anthony Wright hit 21/37 for 214 yards, 1 TD and 2 interceptions against the Titans last week in the Wild Card round. The Buccaneers self-destructed against the Titans in week 17, with 24/38 for 202 yards, 1 TD and 4 interceptions to their credit. The Titans had 21 interceptions in 2003 (8th in the NFL) and sacked the opposition 38 times (tied for 9th) - this team employs a gambling, ball-hawking style of pass D. The Patriots allowed 32 sacks this season, so they are somewhat susceptible to pass pressure.

New England lists no one on their initial injury report. Tennessee says that CB Samari Rolle is questionable to play due to a concussion and the after-effects of the concussion.

The forecast for Gillette Stadium calls for a high of 24° F and a low of 5° F with a 10% chance for precipitation. As this game is set for 8:15 P.M., the temperature will be closer to 5° F than 24° F - the ball will be hard to grip in such conditions, making the passing game more difficult. The entire field was resodded during the bye week, so the playing surface should be in decent shape.

Brady is very hot, and hasn't thrown an interception during his past 4 games - the Titans have been aggressively creating turnovers in recent weeks, and have bettered their season average regarding yardage allowed in recent games. This looks like a good, but not great, matchup for Brady (who needs to be careful with the ball, given how hard it will be to grip during a frigid New England night).

Philadelphia's Passing Attack vs. The Green Bay Defense (Good Matchup)

These two teams met for the first time since the start of 2001 in week 10 of the regular season this year - Donovan McNabb put up a solid 15/31 for 198 yards, 1 TD and 0 interception effort in the course of the game. He had a tough first half that week, managing only 28 passing yards in the first 30 minutes, but half-time adjustments led to a come-from-behind 17-14 victory powered by the passing game. 6 different receivers caught between 2 and 3 balls in the game - James Thrash led the team with 2/55/0, while Todd Pinkston snagged 3/26/1 to account for the only passing score.

Donovan McNabb closed the regular season fairly strong, with 55/86 for 716 yards, 4 TDs and 3 interceptions in the final 3 games of 2003 (with 13/35/2 rushing in addition). Todd Pinkston led the team in targets in the closing weeks (15-17) of the regular season, with 18 targets yielding 10/273/1. Freddie Mitchell (15 targets for 8/100/1) and James Thrash (15 targets for 5/69/0) rounded out the top 3 receivers during that time span.

Chad Lewis had 7 targets for 4/46/1 to lead the Eagles' TE's, but L. J. Smith saw more passes (10 targets for 5/29/0).

Green Bay gave up a lot of yards to the Seahawk's excellent receiving corps last week (Matt Hasselbeck was 25/45 for 305 yards, 0 TDs and 1 interception), and Seattle set up their rushing scores with long passes that just missed reaching the end-zone - don't be impressed that Hasselbeck didn't throw any TDs against the Pack last week. In week 17, the Bronco's backups managed only 13/27 for 102 yards, 0 TDs and 2 interceptions - but that really wasn't a fair test of the Packer's pass D. Green Bay has been pretty generous all year, allowing an average of 212.5 passing yards per game (23rd in the NFL), with 18 passing scores surrendered to date. They are tied for 19th in the NFL with 34 regular-season sacks, and managed 21 interceptions in 16 games (including 1 returned for a TD by Al Harris last week to win the playoff game). Philadelphia has been pathetic at protecting McNabb, allowing 43 sacks in 2003 (tied for 4th-worst in the NFL) - there is a potential weakness here for the Packers to exploit.

Neither team lists injuries relevant to this matchup on their Wednesday report.

The forecast for Lincoln Financial Field calls for a high of 34° F and a low of 34° F with a 10% chance for precipitation. It should be a crisp day for a football game.

McNabb enjoyed a decent game against the Packers in week 10, and they haven't gotten much better at Pass D since then. Advantage, Philadelphia.

Carolina's Passing Attack vs. The St. Louis Defense (Neutral Matchup)

The last Panthers/Rams game was in week 15 of 2001 - Chris Weinke was the starting QB and Richard Huntley was their top RB at that point. A lot has changed in Carolina since then, so recent history doesn't tell us much of anything about this week's matchup.

Jake Delhomme enjoyed a strong game against the Cowboy's top-ranked defense last week, with 18/29 for 273 yards, 1 TD and 0 interceptions. Some of his incomplete passes were wobbly and looked ripe to be picked off, but Dallas didn't manage to turn the trick. As usual, Steve Smith was the Panther's top receiver, with 7 targets for 5/135/1, and Muhsin Muhammad looked like re-energized, with 7 targets for 4/103/0 on the day. 6 other players also caught passes from Delhomme last week. The play of Delhomme extended a streak of solid play - in the final 3 games of the regular season, he tossed 65/97 for 687 yards, 5 TDs and 3 interceptions. All the parts of Carolina's offense seem to be in sync right now.

The Rams finished the season by choking against the lowly Lions, allowing 26/36 for 238 yards, 3 TDs and 1 interception to the bare-bones Detroit receiving corps and Joey Harrington. In week 16, Jon Kitna imploded with 3 interceptions (16/29 for 202 yards, with 1 TD) against the Rams. After the regular season, the Rams were 12th in the NFL allowing an average of 192 passing yards per game, with 23 passing scores surrendered to date. They were tied for 4th with 42 sacks, and also tied for 4th with 24 interceptions this season - they like to rush the passer and create turnovers. Carolina gave up 27 sacks in 2003 (6th-least in the league) - they aren't particularly susceptible to the pass rush.

The Panthers say backup TE Marco Battaglia (quadriceps) is questionable for action. The Rams are injury free in this phase of the game.

This playoff game is to be played in the Edward Jones Dome, so weather won't be a factor.

The Rams are a ball-hawking bunch that will try to force Delhomme into turnovers - however, he hasn't been turning the ball over very much in recent weeks. At the Rams' house, we see this as a neutral matchup.

Green Bay's Passing Attack vs. The Philadelphia Defense (Neutral Matchup)

Brett Favre didn't need to throw a bunch in the last clash between these teams in week 10 of the regular season (the Packers rushed for 241 yards and a score in the game), and at the time he was struggling with his thumb injury (only two weeks old at that point). 14/22 for 109 yards, 1 TD and 1 interception was the final tally - Favre fumbled 3 times (losing one) and had trouble controlling the ball due to problems with the thumb and the cast.

That was then - this is now. Favre has become comfortable with the thumb injury and the cast in the intervening weeks, tossing 26/38 for 319 yards (with a long of 44 to Javon Walker) 1 TD and 0 interceptions in the playoff game last week. He finished the regular season with 57/84 for 793 yards, 9 TDs and 2 interceptions in his final three games - Favre is back with a vengeance. Javon Walker (5/111/0 last week, with 6 targets in the game) has emerged as a consistent long-ball threat - all told, 9 guys caught passes last week (Bubba Franks accounted for the score with 2/33/1). Favre and company look on top of their game coming into this matchup.

The Eagle's pass D has been mediocre for most of 2003, ranking 16th during regular season allowing 202.3 passing yards per game on average, with 17 passing scores allowed in 16 games. They tied for 9th in the NFL with 39 sacks, but only managed 13 interceptions all year (25th in the NFL). Green Bay only allowed 19 sacks all year long (tied for 2nd-least in the NFL) - they aren't very vulnerable to pass-rushers (they allowed 0 sacks in the Wild Card game vs. Seattle). Jeff Garcia shredded the Eagles for 15/29 for 225 yards, 2 TDs and 0 interceptions in week 16, while journeyman Tim Hasselbeck managed 21/32 for 192 yards, 0 TDs and 1 interception during the dying gasp of the Fun-N-Gun to close the season.

CB Troy Vincent is listed as probable for the Eagles - his hip injury has improved during the bye week and he's been practicing normally again. Favre (thumb) and Walker (shoulder) are both listed as probable to play.

The forecast for Lincoln Financial Field calls for a high of 34° F and a low of 34° F with a 10% chance for precipitation. It should be a crisp day for a football game.

Favre and the Packers come into this game pretty hot - Philadelphia has been up and down in recent games, but managed to get their secondary pretty healthy during the bye week, so all the pieces to their puzzle are back in play. Home-field advantage levels the playing field in this game - we call it a neutral matchup.

Kansas City's Passing Attack vs. The Indianapolis Defense (Neutral Matchup)

Trent Green last had a crack at the Colts back in week 7 of 2001 - he put up 22/43 for 324 yards, 3 TDs and 3 interceptions against them, without Johnnie Morton, Eddie Kennison or Dante Hall on the receiving end of his passes. Since then, the receiving corps has been upgraded to better team with Tony Gonzalez and Trent Green.

Green closed out 2003 with 57/90 for 727 yards, 4 TDs and 3 interceptions during his final 3 games. Eddie Kennison led the WR's during those 3 weeks with 11/169/1 on 15 targets, while Johnnie Morton did less with more (24 for 11/135/0) and TE Gonzalez led the team with 27 targets for 17/212/2. 19/27 for 169 yards, 1 TD and 1 interception were Green's totals in week 17, before he left the game for backup Todd Collins' cleanup act in the 31-3 spanking of the Bears.

Indianapolis' passing D has been stout all season long, averaging only 175.6 passing yards allowed per game (5th in the NFL), while surrendering 18 passing scores in 16 games. They don't do a ton of sacking (31 this season, 23rd in the NFL), and were tied for 14th in the NFL with 15 interceptions during regular season. Kansas City only allowed 21 sacks all year (3rd-least in the NFL) - they don't fold in the face of the pass rush most weeks. The Colts are all-around fundamentally solid, but don't excel in any one statistical category. Last week, Jake Plummer had a hard time finding cracks to exploit (23/30 for 181 yards, 1 TD and 2 interceptions), as did David Carr (13/23 for 105 yards, 0 TDs and 1 interception in week 17). As you can see, the Colts are on top of their game coming into this matchup.

The Colts say that almost their entire secondary is dealing with one injury or another: S. Cory Bird (leg/shoulder), S Mike Doss (ankle) and CB Donald Strickland (knee) are all listed as questionable. S Idrees Bashir (shoulder/upper arm), CB Nick Harper (lower back/thigh) and CB Walt Harris (knee) are all listed as probable. K.C.'s aerial unit is in good shape.

The Colts play stout pass D, but the Chiefs have a talented corps of receivers and a very steady QB to throw at them in Arrowhead Stadium. This looks like a neutral matchup between top units.

St. Louis' Passing Attack vs. The Carolina Defense (Tough Matchup)

The last time these teams met, in 2001, the Panthers were sporting a 1-15 record, and they had a different coaching staff and a very different roster. St. Louis was starting Kurt Warner back then, as well - recent history doesn't help us much regarding this one.

Marc Bulger ended the season on a sour note, with 18/31 for 170 yards, 1 TD and 1 interception vs. the Detroit Lions before being injured and replaced by Kurt Warner (4/11 for 23 yards, 0 TDs and 0 interceptions). With only 193 yards to spread around, none of the receivers managed more than 60 yards - TE Brandon Manumaleuna hauled in the lone TD (3/24/1). The Rams definitely come into this one at less than full-steam (Marc Bulger had 62/101 for 635 yards, 5 TDs and 3 interceptions in his final 3 games of the regular season, not exactly high-octane numbers).

Carolina stifled the Cowboy's trio of WR's last week, limiting Quincy Carter to 21/36 for 154 yards, 0 TDs and 1 interception - nobody caught more than 4 passes or gained in excess of 60 yards on the Panthers last week. To close the regular season, the Panthers limited the wounded Giants to 18/43 for 110 yards, 2 TDs and 4 interceptions - they have been dominant in recent weeks. For the regular season, the 9th-ranked Panthers averaged 187.7 passing yards allowed per game (with 19 TDs surrendered) - they are playing even more stoutly of late. They were 7th in the regular season with 40 sacks (they added 3 sacks for 22 yards against Carter last week), and 12th in the NFL with 16 regular-season interceptions. The Rams allowed 43 sacks this season (tied for 4th-most in the NFL), so they are susceptible to the type of pressure that the Panthers are pretty adept at bringing - they coughed up 4 sacks for 40 yards to the Lions to close the regular season.

The Rams don't list any offensive players on the injury report. S Jarrod Cooper (hamstring) is questionable for Carolina.

This playoff game is to be played in the Edward Jones Dome, so weather won't be a factor.

The Rams dropped home-field advantage throughout the playoffs by closing the season with a loss to the Lions - they just didn't execute well in the final game of 2003. The Panthers, on the other hand, have a 4 game winning streak going, and caused a lot of problems for their opponents in this phase of the game in recent weeks, and have the pass-blocking weakness of the Rams to exploit. Home field advantage should help the Rams and you can never count out their explosive offense. But we still see this as a potentially troublesome matchup for their aerial unit.

Tennessee's Passing Attack vs. The New England Defense (Tough Matchup)

These two teams know each other about as well as non-divisional rivals can: since New England's 2001 championship season (during which the two teams did not meet), Tennessee has split two games with the Patriots. The Titans won 24-7 in week 15 of 2002, but lost 38-30 in week 5 of 2003. Steve McNair and Derrick Mason usually click against the Patriots, with 23/45 for 360 yards, 0 TDs and 1 interception and 8/99/0 receiving (respectively) in 2003 - in 2002, the numbers were 11/24 for 136 yards, 0 TDs and 1 interception and 6/86/0 - in both games, Mason led the team in receiving yardage vs. the Patriots.

Steve McNair hobbled through much of the game last week, and he had trouble delivering the ball on target (at least partially due to his calf and ankle problems) - he tossed 14/23 for 159 yards, 1 TD and 3 interceptions (after only throwing 7 interceptions in 14 games during regular season). Justin McCareins led the team with 2/62/1 (with a long TD of 49 yards) - nobody else managed more than 3/28/0 receiving (Derrick Mason's numbers). McNair had only played in 1 of the final 3 games of 2003, tossing 17/36 for 268 yards, 2 TDs and 1 interception in that appearance. The Titans remain thin at the WR position as well, with Eddie Berlin (concussion) and Jake Schifino (leg) sidelined last week. Bottom line here is that McNair did not look too good, folks. Neil O'Donnell is waiting in the wings if coach Fisher calls on him, though (18/27 for 232 yards, 2 TDs and 1 interception in his single game of 2003, vs. the tough Tampa Bay secondary).

The Patriots are no slouches when playing at home this season. They have allowed 1 TD in their past 6 home games; they have stopped 74 of their opponents' last 75 drives short of the end-zone. During the last 6 home games, they gave up an average of 3.7 points per game. 23/43 for 202 yards, 0 TDs and 2 interceptions were the Bills' totals in week 17 - in week 16, Chad Pennington threw 24/43 for 229 yards, 0 TDs and 5 disastrous interceptions against New England (they led the league with 29 interceptions this year). The Patriots had a franchise-record +17 turnover differential in 2003, and put up 41 sacks (6th in the league). Tennessee protects McNair pretty well, allowing only 25 sacks during regular season, towards the bottom end of that scale (11 (Detroit) - 51 (Buffalo) delineating the range of the scale in 2003). They only allowed 10 passing scores in 16 games this year, while giving away an average of 202 passing yards per game (15th in the NFL).

The Titans say that McNair (calf/ankle), Berlin (concussion) and Schifino (leg) are questionable to play this week (they rarely define an injury as anything other than "questionable" or "out", though). New England doesn't list anybody on their injury report.

McNair struggled last week, and the Patriots are at least as good at pass D as the Ravens, if not a little better, all around. Though McNair tore them up earlier this year, he has a lot of nagging injuries to contend with now, and will be playing in less-than-ideal conditions for the passing game - advantage, New England.