Passing Matchups

PLEASE NOTE: This does NOT replace the Cheatsheet ranking. The Cheatsheet rankings are the final say on where we see a player for that week. The Matchup Breakdowns are simply one more tool in the box when it comes to helping choose your lineup.

Also note, just because a player has a "bad" matchup, it does NOT mean he's not a starter in your league. If Peyton Manning is playing the toughest pass defense in the league, that just means he's got a tough matchup that week. He's also your starter unless you're loaded at QB. In the same way, if the worst QB on your roster has a "great" matchup that week, it doesn't necessarily mean he's your starter. It means we think he'll fare better than normal that week.

Bottom line is that the cheatsheets are the final say.

Let's jump to it.

Joe

Carolina's Passing Attack vs. The Philadelphia Defense (Good Matchup)

These teams have met once since John Fox took over the Panthers in 2001 - in week 13 this past regular season. John Kasay choked big-time, missing 3 field goals and an extra point, and it cost the Panthers the game (26-15). Jake Delhomme did his part in week 13, though, with 18/29 for 216 yards, 2 TDs and 0 interceptions - Carolina's duo of Steve Smith (5/80/1) and Muhsin Muhammad (6/79/1) accounted for the scores and led the team in receiving, as they do most weeks.

Delhomme has been steady during his two playoff appearances, with 34/55 for 563 yards, 2 TDs and 1 interception - both TDs have gone to his clutch, big-play receiver Steve Smith (11/298/2 in 2 games), including the game-winner in overtime last week. Meanwhile Muhsin Muhammad has made key grabs (9/173/0) but hasn't hit pay dirt yet. 16/26 for 290 yards, 1 TD and 1 interception were Delhomme's totals last week. He's playing very solid football right now. As is Smith - coach Fox noted this week "He has explosive abilities. He has a lot of talent. You'd like to think the more you do something the better you get. He's got the skills. He's got the talent. Now it's just developing the skills and the exactness that comes with the job description of being a wide receiver." (1/14/04 Rock Hill Herald article, by Darin Gantt)

Philadelphia struggled to contain ultra-hot Brett Favre in the early going last week (Robert Ferguson caught 2 TDs in the first quarter, victimizing Troy Vincent's replacement Sheldon Brown), but managed to clamp down in the final 45 minutes of the game, ultimately stifling Favre and the Packers (15/28 for 180 yards, 2 TDs and 1 interception) in a 20-17 OT win. The Eagles haven't been overpowering in this phase of the game, allowing an average of 202.3 passing yards per game during the regular season (16th in the NFL) and allowed 17 passing scores as well. They only added 1 sack to their regular season total of 39 (9th in the NFL), but did pull down an interception (by Brian Dawkins).

Starting CB Troy Vincent couldn't get on the field at game time last week due to his hip injury - he's listed as probable this week. The Panthers did without backup TE Marco Battaglia last week - he's not listed this week.

The forecast for Lincoln Financial Field calls for a high of 37°F with a low of 19°F and a 20% chance of precipitation. That's not too bad for Philadelphia in the middle of January, although the temperature will be closer to the low end of the scale during the game, which should kick off around 6:45 P.M.

The Panthers are confident of their ability to pass when they need to, and Delhomme had good success against the Eagles in the teams' last meeting. The Eagles have home-field advantage this time around, but they still had trouble against the pass last week while facing Green Bay - this looks like a good matchup for Delhomme and the Panthers.

Indianapolis' Passing Attack vs. The New England Defense (Good Matchup)

The contrasts between Peyton Manning's last two outings vs. the Patriots couldn't be more striking - during the Patriots' 2001 championship season, Manning had a miserable game (20/34 for 196 yards, 1 TD and 3 interceptions, 2 of which were returned for defensive TDs by Otis Smith and Ty Law); whereas in the week 13 squeaker - New England won 38-34 - Manning threw 29/48 for 278 yards, 4 TDs and 1 interception (1 TD each to Marvin Harrison, Troy Walters, Reggie Wayne and Marcus Pollard).

The Peyton Manning that has been tearing up opposing secondaries during the playoffs is playing even better than the guy the Patriots saw during the week 13 game - how does 44/56 for 681 yards, 8 TDs and 0 interceptions so far grab you? He's been even better than those numbers suggest. Brandon Stokley (8/201/3), Marvin Harrison (13/231/2), and Reggie Wayne (11/126/2) all have multiple TDs over the last 2 games, and Stokley wasn't in the mix the last time the Colts played the Patriots - although Troy Walters has been missing time due to his foot injury during the playoffs. Manning wasn't quite perfect last week (22/30 for 304 yards, 3 TDs and 0 interceptions, though), but coach Dungy isn't complaining. This is one HOT attack right now, folks.

New England handled the first of the 2 MVP's on their plate during the playoffs, limiting Steve McNair to 18/26 for 210 yards, 1 TD and 1 interception. Before McNair came to town, the final 2 opponents that the Patriots faced in regular season - Chad Pennington and Drew Bledsoe - combined for 431 yards, 0 TDs and 7 interceptions. The Patriots led the league with 29 interceptions during regular season, and generated 41 sacks, good for 6th in the NFL (they added 3 more against McNair last week). However, they were 15th in the league in passing yards allowed per game during regular season (202 yards per game). Indianapolis was tied for second-least sacks allowed during regular season (19), and only allowed 1 last week to the Chiefs. As noted above, Manning has yet to throw an interception in the playoffs - the Colts just aren't very vulnerable to pass rushing (they did give up 2 sacks in week 13, though), and Manning is taking exceptionally good care of the ball lately. Prior to the 2 TDs the Titans scored last week, the Patriots had allowed only 1 TD in 75 drives at Gillette stadium.

Reserve WR Troy Walters in not listed on the Wednesday injury report, but starting WR Marvin Harrison (chest, probable) is. TE Marcus Pollard (ankle) is probable to play, while backup TE Dallas Clark (ankle/leg) is out. The Patriots' secondary is in good health coming into this game.

The forecast for Gillette Stadium calls for a high of 31°F with a low of 18°F and a 20% chance of precipitation. That should seem downright balmy to the Patriots after last week's deep-freeze temperatures. The game starts at 3 P.M. - the temperatures should be nearer the high end of the forecast range.

New England head coach Bill Belichick will likely be a factor as well There isn't a coach in the league better at defensive game planning. On the other side of the ball, there likely isn't a quarterback in the league who'll be more prepared than Manning. Should be a great matchup.

Manning is playing at the very peak of his considerable abilities right now - the Patriots gave a little ground to McNair last week. Given Manning's 4 TD performance against the Patriots earlier this year, and his flawless execution of the Colts' offense last Sunday despite the thunderous Arrowhead Stadium crowd, we have to give the edge to the visitors in this one. Slight Advantage, Indianapolis.

New England's Passing Attack vs. The Indianapolis Defense (Neutral Matchup)

Tom Brady has faced the Colts twice since the beginning of the Patriots' 2001 championship season. In week 3 of 2001 he tossed 13/23 for 168 yards, 0 TDs and 0 interceptions. In week 13 of 2003, he hit for 26/35 for 236 yards, 2 TDs and 2 interceptions in the course of the Patriots' 38-34 victory. Deion Branch (6/64/1) and Dedric Ward (2/50/1) were the guys who got the job done on the receiving end of the ball that day.

Since week 13, Troy Brown has returned to the mix at receiver (2/11/0 last week), and Brady opened the playoffs by spreading the ball around to 10 different receivers - Bethel Johnson led the team with 2/55/1, while David Givens hauled in the most receptions (4/26/0). Brady finished the game 21/41 for 201 yards, 1 TD and 0 interceptions on a very tough night for passing considering the weather conditions (single digit temperatures with a gusty wind). Brady had thrown 8 TDs and 0 interceptions in his final 3 games of the regular season, so the lack of interceptions last week was hardly a surprise.

Indianapolis limited the Chiefs to 18/30 for 212 yards, 1 TD and 0 interceptions last week, but the Chiefs didn't need to pass a ton (30/196/2 rushing as a team). Jake Plummer had an even tougher time in the Wild Card round, managing 23/30 for 181 yards, 1 TD and 2 interceptions. The Colts allowed 175.6 passing yards per game during regular season (5th in the NFL), and coughed up 18 scores during regular season (2 more so far in the playoffs). They are a fundamentally solid, if unspectacular bunch. One concern is the high 68.3% completion percentage allowed during the 2 playoff games - but the completions haven't translated into scoring in the passing phase. "It's great to be on a team that has a great offense, and we do," Colts cornerback Walt Harris said. "But we know at some point we're going to have to play good defense to win a game for our offense. We hate to keep putting this kind of pressure on the offense to score every time they have the ball." (1/13/04 Indianapolis Star article, by Phil Richards).

A lot of the Colt's secondary personnel are dealing with assorted bumps and bruises: S Idrees Bashir separated his right shoulder last week (the same one he dislocated earlier this season) and is questionable to play. All of the other guys listed below are considered probable for action: S. Cory Bird (leg/shoulder); S Mike Doss (ankle); CB Nicholas Harper (lower back); CB Walt Harris (knee); CB Donald Strickland (knee/shoulder).

Tom Brady was very hot in the closing weeks of regular season, but was only so-so to begin the Patriots' playoff run (against a soft Titans' secondary). The Colts play sound pass D, and contained the Patriots' attack back in week 13 - at the Patriots' house, we call this a neutral matchup.

Philadelphia's Passing Attack vs. The Carolina Defense (Tough Matchup)

These two teams met earlier this year, in week 13. Donovan McNabb had a steady game that day (18/26 for 182 yards, 1 TD and 1 interception), including 9 receivers among his targets (Freddie Mitchell led the team with 3/40/0, while James Thrash caught the score, 3/27/1). The Eagles won 26-15.

Last week, McNabb spread the ball around some more (against Green Bay, this time), hitting 8 receivers while depending heavily on Todd Pinkston (7/95/1 with a long of 45) and the tight ends Chad Lewis (4/37/0) and L.J. Smith (2/31/0). Duce Staley accounted for the other score (3/27/1). All told, McNabb hit 21/39 for 248 yards, 2 TDs and 0 interceptions en route to a come-from-behind victory. He also ran for 107 crucial yards on 11 carries. It was a complete game for McNabb.

Todd Pinkston has progressed as the season moved along, as Coach Reid noted " they were "putting [Pinkston] in a better position than we did early" and allowing Pinkston to do "the things he does best." Pinkston is "being very aggressive to the ball," Reid continued. "I think he's just done a great job with that. Donovan obviously trusts him and puts it out there for him. He can go get the football, and he has tremendous speed." Said Eagles offensive coordinator Brad Childress: "I think [McNabb] believes Todd will run down any ball he puts up there." (1/14/04 Philadelphia Inquirer article by Ashley McGeachy Fox)

Carolina did a great job against Torry Holt (2/21/0) and Marc Bulger (27/46 for 332 yards, 0 TDs and 3 interceptions) last week, managing to deny the explosive Rams' receivers any 6-point plays. Isaac Bruce had a good game (7/116/0) and Faulk did what he could to help out (9/78/0), but in the end it wasn't enough to overcome the turnovers and missed opportunities. SS Mike Minter, FS Deon Grant and LCB Ricky Manning all had an interception in the game last week. Two weeks ago, the Cowboys fell flat against this secondary (21/36 for 154 yards, 0 TDs and 1 interception). The Panthers have added 4 interceptions to their regular-season total of 16, and 5 sacks to their total of 40 during regular season - meanwhile, the Eagles allowed 8 more sacks last week, emphasizing their problems handling the oppositions' pass rush (the Eagles gave up 43 in regular season, 4th-worst in the NFL). The Panthers have a powerful front 4 who must be salivating at the thought of raining blows down on McNabb this weekend. It could get ugly, that's for sure.

Neither team lists players from their respective units on this week's injury report.

The forecast for Lincoln Financial Field calls for a high of 37°F with a low of 19°F and a 20% chance of precipitation. Those are pretty nice conditions for Philadelphia in the middle of January, although the temperature will be closer to the low end of the scale during the game, which should kick off around 6:45 P.M.

The Panthers handled some of the best receivers in the business last week, and have been very tough to score on during the playoffs. The Eagles did what they needed to in order to win last week - including making plays in the passing game. With the efficient-but-unspectacular game McNabb produced last time around, this looks like a tough matchup to us.