Rushing Matchups

Hi Folks,

Here's our look at the Rushing Matchups for this week.

PLEASE NOTE: This does NOT replace the Cheatsheet ranking. The Cheatsheet rankings are the final say on where we see a player for that week. The Matchup Breakdowns are simply one more tool in the box when it comes to helping choose your lineup.

Also note, just because a player has a "bad" matchup, it does NOT mean he's not a starter in your league. If Jamal Lewis is playing the toughest rush defense in the league, that just means he's got a tough matchup that week. He's also your starter. In the same way, if the worst RB on your roster has a "great" matchup, that doesn't necessarily mean you start him, it just means he'll likely fare better this week than he normally would.

Bottom line, the cheatsheets are the final word.

Let's jump to it.

Joe

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Playoff Week 1 Rushing Matchups

By Mark Wimer with Joe Bryant

Denver's Clinton Portis vs. The Indianapolis Defense (Good Matchup)

This game is a rematch of the week 16 clash that saw Indianapolis go down to defeat 31-17 before their home crowd. Clinton Portis was sidelined due to a knee injury, but the Broncos slapped down 54/227/3 rushing with the tandem of Quentin Griffin, Mike Anderson and Jake Plummer (2 rushing scores - 6/22/2). The backs alone racked up 192 rushing yards and 1 TD. The Colts just couldn't come up with stops when they needed to get the ball back to their offense. Back in 2002 (week 12), Portis gained 18/88/2 rushing against the Colts (Indy won 23-20).

Before his injury, Portis was on a monster tear, with 94/527/9 rushing and 4/49/0 receiving during weeks 13-15. He racked up 290/1591/14 rushing and 38/314/0 receiving this season - the Broncos averaged 4.8 yards per carry in 2003 (tied for 3rd in the NFL), with 543/2629 rushing as a team. Their OL knows how to get the job done.

In week 17, Indianapolis pulled out a late win vs. the Texans, while allowing 20/99/2 to young Domanick Davis - they haven't been handling opposing backs very well in the late weeks of 2003. That was the case most of the year, as Indianapolis ranks 20th in the NFL allowing an average of 123.6 rushing yards per game (with 19 rushing scores surrendered this season - 4th-most rushing scores allowed in the NFL).

Denver's starting RG Dan Neil has been fighting a high ankle sprain in recent weeks and was sidelined in the last two weeks, but is listed as probable for the playoff game. Clinton Portis is listed as probable with his ankle and tackle Ephraim Salaam (knee) is probable.

For the Colts, starting LB Marcus Washington suffered a rib injury in the game last week - he is listed as questionable on the injury report. Safety Cory Bird (shoulder) and safety Mike Doss (ankle) are both questionable. Safety Idrees Bashir (shoulder/arm) is probable.

This game is to be played in the RCA Dome, so weather is not an issue.

Indianapolis has struggled in this phase of the game all year long, and really had a hard time with Denver just two weeks ago - and that was without Portis on the field. Advantage, Broncos.

Green Bay's Ahman Green vs. The Seattle Defense (Good Matchup)

These two teams clashed at Lambeau Field back in week 5 of the regular season, where they meet again this week. Ahman Green ground up the Seahawks in that game, with 27/118/2 rushing and 1/7/0 receiving (the team rushed for 35/159/3 (Tony Fisher had 3/33/1 that day to account for the other TD). The Seahawks consistently failed to contain the Packers in rushing situations, leading to a lot of 2nd- and 3rd-down-and-short situations - when the Packers had their choice of rushing the ball or using the play-action pass down the field.

In the weeks leading up to this Wild-Card playoff game, Green has been a dominant force amassing 63/420/4 rushing with 3/12/1 receiving in the past 3 games. Last week, against Denver, he exploded for 20/218/2 rushing (with a long of 98 yards and one of the TD's) and added 1/9/0 receiving. He comes into this playoff game red-hot and on top of his game.

Seattle, on the other hand, got the help they needed to land in the playoffs, and did their part against the 49'ers last week, holding Kevan Barlow and company to 22/59/0 rushing. Two weeks ago, Arizona managed a mere 26/79/0 rushing (Josh McCown, the QB who is not particularly mobile, led the team with 8/38) - when the Seahawks absolutely had to win their games, the defensive front elevated their play far above their season average (109.9 rushing yards allowed per game, with only 9 rushing scores given away all year).

Green Bay's starting LG Mike Wahl has a broken ring finger, but played through the injury with a cast on his hand last week, and figures to do so again this week. Green's backup Najeh Davenport strained his neck last week, but X-rays were negative and the injury is considered minor. Neither guys are on the injury report.

Seattle lists DT Rocky Bernard (toe) as questionable. DE Chike Okeafor (ankle) and S Reggie Tongue (hamstring) are probable.

The forecast for Lambeau Field calls for a high of 23F and a low of 9F with a 10% chance for precipitation. Welcome to the arctic cold, Seahawks! At least the field shouldn't be slick.

Ahman Green is on a tear right now, and runs behind one of the leagues' premier OL (averaging 5.0 yards per carry in the 2003 regular season, second in the NFL this year). Seattle has been playing tough in this phase recently, but really struggled against the Packers earlier this year (and they are visiting the hostile environs of Lambeau Field). Advantage, Packers.

Seattle's Shaun Alexander vs. The Green Bay Defense (Neutral Matchup)

Shaun Alexander was the lone bright spot for the Seahawks last time these teams faced off (in week 5 of the regular season) - he rushed for 20/102/1 (with 3/13/0 receiving) and accounted for the only Seahawks' TD that day. He had 50 yards rushing in the first quarter of that game, before the Seahawks fell behind and had to opt for more passing (and gave up on the rushing game, by and large) - Alexander looked strong in his chances against the Green Bay defensive front.

Lately, Alexander has been the bread-and-butter of the Seahawks, with 67/345/4 rushing and 6/64/0 receiving during the last 3 games. Last week, he rushed for 21/84/1 and caught 3/49/0 against the 49'ers - he comes into this playoff game on a roll. His OL has been good all year, averaging 4.4 yards per carry during the regular season (10th-ranked in the NFL).

Green Bay was pretty porous against the limping Raiders' OL and their backs two weeks ago, allowing 16/104/1 (a 6.5 yards per carry average) to Wheatley and company. Last week, against the Bronco's "B" team, they managed to hold Quentin Griffin (with assistance from Cecil Sapp) to 34/114/0 (a 3.5 yards per carry average), but that performance was against a team with little passing threat - Plummer was rested, so Jarious Jackson and Danny Kanell tossed the pigskin around (not too well - making it easy to defend against the run). The Packers were the 10th ranked rush D in the NFL this year, allowing 106.3 yards per game on average (with 10 rushing scores surrendered in 16 games). They've been somewhat suspect in easy games recently (Green Bay won by a total of 72-14 margin in the span of 2 games to close the season).

Seattle's starting RG Chris Gray suffered a knee injury last week (a torn ACL in his right knee) - he's out for the playoffs. Floyd Womack is likely to step in at Gray's spot. Reserve OL Jerry Wunsch was placed on IR last week.

Green Bay's starting LB Na'il Diggs left the game last week with a shoulder injury and he's probable for this week. Starting NT Gilbert Brown sat the game out to rest his knee - he's listed as probable this week. Injuries are something to look at closely as this playoff game gets closer - Brown in particular is a key player in the center of the Green Bay defensive front, while Womack has struggled to stay on the field at points during 2003 for the Seahawks.

The forecast for Lambeau Field calls for a high of 23F and a low of 9F with a 10% chance for precipitation. Welcome to the arctic cold, Seahawks! At least the field shouldn't be slick.

Alexander is a top back, and was on his way to a big game against the Packers back in week 5 (and he was very effective in his chances) - the Packers enjoy home field advantage and a top-ten rush D. We think this looks like a pretty even matchup.

Baltimore's Jamal Lewis vs. The Tennessee Defense (Tough Matchup)

Jamal Lewis and the Ravens had a record-setting season in 2003, and Lewis just barely fell short of the single-season rushing mark with 27/114/1 rushing against the Steelers last week. 387/2066/14 rushing and 26/205/0 receiving were his season totals this year, and he's been just as strong at the end of the season (73/444/3 rushing with 4/34/0 receiving over the final 3 games of the season) as he was to start things off (Lewis had 68/496/4 rushing and 4/11/0 receiving over the first 3 games of the year). The Ravens as a team averaged 4.8 yards per carry in 2003 (553/2669 yards corporately) - this is one awesome rushing unit, folks. The last time these old rivals met, in week 12 of 2002, Baltimore won 13-12 and Lewis ran for 17/95/0 with 1/13/0 receiving.

Tennessee's rush D has been stifling all season long, with an average of 80.9 rushing yards allowed per game (1st in the NFL) - they gave away 10 rushing scores in 16 games. The Titans completed the regular season right in line with their season average, limiting Tampa Bay to 19/89/0 rushing - two weeks ago, the Texans gained 18/91/1 in this phase of the game. Moving the ball on the ground against the Titans is not an easy task.

Tennessee's defensive front comes into this game banged up - DL Kevin Carter injured his neck last week, DE Jevon Kearse tweaked his back, and 2 LB's - starter Rocky Calmus (broken leg) and backup Jordan Kramer (ankle) - have been sidelined for several weeks.

Baltimore's OL is in good shape, as is Lewis.

The forecast for M & T Bank Stadium calls for a high of 54F and a low of 46F with a 40% chance for precipitation. If the rain comes down hard around game time, footing and ball handling will be more troublesome than usual.

Baltimore has a top rushing attack, while the Titans play hard-nosed rush D. The injuries may hamper the Titans somewhat, but we still see this as a tough defense. We expect Lewis to continue to roll, but Tennessee will be no pushover.

Carolina's Stephen Davis vs. The Dallas Defense (Tough Matchup)

These two teams crossed swords in week 12, and Stephen Davis started the game strong with a 10 yard run on his first carry. He then proceeded to gain 49 yards on his next 25 carries, as the Cowboys clamped down and largely contained Davis (26/59/1 rushing with 1/7/0 receiving were his totals at the end of the game). Davis was with the Redskins in 2002, in a situation very different from Carolina - we'll just stick with 2003 for comparisons sake.

Davis closed out the 2003 season with a short tune-up against the Giants (11/57/0) - backup DeShaun Foster saw the majority of work weeks 16 and 17 as the Panthers protected their top RB for the playoffs. Davis stated this week that the time off was a very good thing, and that his various aches and pains (accumulated over the course of the season) had a chance to heal - he feels ready to go for the playoffs. 318/1444/8 rushing and 14/159/0 were the totals Davis amassed in 14 games in 2003 - the team averaged 4.0 yards per carry (tied for 16th in the NFL) during the course of the season.

Dallas stumbled to end 2003, losing to the Saints 13-7 - however, their tough-nosed run D was as impenetrable as ever, with only 24/58/0 rushing allowed to McAllister and company. 22/54/0 was what Tiki Barber and company managed two weeks ago - Dallas is playing even tougher in this phase than their 3rd-ranked average of 89.1 rushing yards per game allowed would indicate (only 7 rushing scores allowed all season, 2nd-least in the NFL). It has been very difficult to do much of anything against the Cowboys in the rushing phase all season long.

Both teams come into this matchup pretty healthy - injuries aren't much of a factor before the fact.

The forecast for Ericsson Stadium calls for a high of 57F and a low of 50F with a 30% chance for precipitation. If the rain comes down hard around game time, footing and ball handling will be more troublesome than usual.

Dallas is very solid in this phase of the game, and Davis had limited success against them in their first meeting - advantage, Dallas.

Dallas' Troy Hambrick vs. The Carolina Defense (Tough Matchup)

Troy Hambrick is in for a tough day against the Panthers if recent history is any guide. The two teams met in week 12 this season, and Hambrick had a miserable day (12/26/0 rushing, with 1/0/0 receiving) - the second-most productive back that day was Aveion Cason (6/26/1 rushing, with 2/9/0 receiving) - he's on IR with a torn ACL nowadays. Dallas as a team only put up 25/65/1. The two teams also played a close game back in 2002 (week 6: Dallas won 14-13) - Emmitt Smith was the featured back then, though - Hambrick had 3/15/0 rushing in a bit role.

During the final 3 games of the regular season, Hambrick put up a total of 56/251/0 rushing and 1/2/0 receiving - he hasn't been getting much done lately. He rushed for 11/26/0 against the Saints last week, and 12/36/0 against the Giants two weeks ago - there doesn't seem to be much gas left in Hambrick's tank. Richie Anderson has been doing a significant amount of the work in recent weeks, with 6/26/0 rushing and 10/83/1 receiving vs. the Saints, and 7/34/0 rushing with 4/17/0 receiving to his credit against the Giants two weeks ago. Dallas has been under-whelming in this phase at most points in 2003, with a sub-par 3.9 yards per carry average (515/1999 rushing yards as a team this season).

Carolina finished their season with a 3 game win-streak over NFL "powerhouses" Arizona, Detroit and the NYG - they allowed 39/171/2 to the Cardinals, 21/53/0 to Detroit, and 19/76/0 to the Giants in those 3 contests - the run D closed out the season fairly strong, as you can see. The Panthers were the 11th best run D in the NFL this past season, with an average of 107.6 yards allowed per game, and 10 rushing scores surrendered in 16 games.

Starting DT Brentson Buckner missed the final 2 regular season games in an attempt to get his ailing knee healthy for the playoffs. He's probable for this week. He's also the only defensive player on Carolina's injury report.

Dallas has no offensive players on the injury report.

Hambrick has been stone cold in recent weeks, and didn't do well against the Panthers the first time around the block. In Ericsson stadium, the Cowboys' backs are in for a long day.

Indianapolis' Edgerrin James vs. The Denver Defense (Tough Matchup)

Edgerrin James averaged 4.2 yards per carry against the Broncos back in week 16, with 10/42/1 rushing (the TD came on a 16 yard scamper in the second quarter) before the Colts fell behind and abandoned the running game almost entirely. The offense almost totally collapsed that day (Peyton Manning only managed 12/23 for 146 yards, 0 TD's and 0 interceptions), so the Colts are still smarting from their embarrassment. In week 12 of 2002, James put up 26/84/1 rushing and 6/31/0 receiving against the Broncos at Mile High Stadium, so he's got a decent track record against this team in recent games.

James also comes into this game hot, having abused the Texans for 27/171/1 rushing and 5/35/0 receiving last week. He has put up 57/339/2 rushing and 7/41/0 receiving in his last 3 games (including the 10/42/1 effort in week 16), so he's been pretty productive in 2 of his last 3 games. The Colts' OL haven't been finding James a lot of room to work in 2003, however - their 3.7 yards per carry average (453/1695 yards as a team) ranks 26th in the NFL.

Denver has been stout against the run in 2003, allowing an average of 100.3 rushing yards per game (7th in the NFL), while surrendering only 11 rushing scores all year long. Against the Packers last week (with their "B" team in play, remember) they played one of their poorest outings of the year - Green Bay tore them up for 34/262/2 in a (for Denver) meaningless game. Three weeks ago, the Broncos held the Browns to 26/102/0 rushing - they've been all over the place in this phase of the game during the closing weeks of 2003.

Both teams come into this game in relatively good health.

This game is to be played in the RCA Dome, so weather is not an issue.

James and company are looking for payback against the Broncos, but don't expect it to be easy. Even with home field advantage, this one looks like a fairly tough matchup for the Colts.

Tennessee's Eddie George vs. The Baltimore Defense (Bad Matchup)

Eddie George has battled through another 16 game season, and he ends the year with 312/1031/5 rushing and 22/163/0 receiving to his credit. The 3.3 yards-per-carry average isn't gaudy, but he has provided as much effort as he is currently capable of giving to his team. George closed out the season much as he began it, grinding out sub-100 yard rushing games (68/233/0 rushing and 6/70/0 receiving in the final 3 contests), including his 26/87/0 rushing and 4/45/0 receiving effort against the Buccaneers. He managed 16/61/0 rushing and 2/11/0 receiving the last time these teams met back in week 12 of 2002.

Baltimore comes into the game ranked 6th in the NFL allowing an average of 96.0 rushing yards per game during 2003 - they have surrendered only 6 rushing scores all year, tied for best in the NFL with Tampa Bay. Cleveland was blanked two weeks ago (24/78/0 rushing as a team), and Pittsburgh fared even worse in the rushing phase week 17, managing 27/56/0 - the Ravens are on top of their game in this phase steaming into the playoffs.

Backup RB Robert Holcombe missed the season finale with a sore hamstring (Chris Brown saw spot duty in his absence, 7/26/0 rushing and 1/4/0 receiving). Holcombe is officially questionable for this week.

Baltimore had been doing without LB Peter Boulware (knee) recently, as he tried to get healthy for the playoffs. He's questionable for this week.

Tennessee's rushing attack is pretty anemic, and the Ravens are very robust, especially in the red-zone. This is a very tough matchup for the aging George and his compatriots.