Rushing Matchups

PLEASE NOTE: This does NOT replace the Cheatsheet ranking. The Cheatsheet rankings are the final say on where we see a player for that week. The Matchup Breakdowns are simply one more tool in the box when it comes to helping choose your lineup.

Also note, just because a player has a "bad" matchup, it does NOT mean he's not a starter in your league. If Priest Holmes is playing the toughest rush defense in the league, that just means he's got a tough matchup that week. He's also your starter. In the same way, if the worst RB on your roster has a "great" matchup, that doesn't necessarily mean you start him, it just means he'll likely fare better this week than he normally would.

Bottom line, the cheatsheets are the final word.

Let's jump to it.

Joe

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Playoff Week 2 Rushing Matchups

By Mark Wimer with Joe Bryant

Indianapolis' Edgerrin James vs. The Kansas City Defense (Great Matchup)

It's been awhile since these two teams locked horns, back in week 7 of 2001. Indianapolis won a high-scoring affair (35-28) - Edgerrin James (27/102/0), Dominic Rhodes (4/87/1 with a long of 77 yards) and Peyton Manning (2/5/0) nearly broke through the 200 yard rushing barrier as a team (33/194/1, all told).

This year, the Colts have been less than dominant in the rushing phase of the game - they sport a sub-par 3.7 yards-per-carry average as a team (26th in the NFL) and have 1695 yards rushing as a team (19th in the NFL). However, James has closed the season strong, with 57/339/2 rushing and 7/41/0 receiving in the final 3 games of regular season - to which he added 17/78/0 rushing (a 4.6 yards per carry average) and 5/37/0 receiving in the 41-10 rout of Denver last week (Manning threw for 377 yards and 5 TDs last week - the rushing game was not center-stage, obviously). James seems to be hitting top speed just as the road to the Super-Bowl opens before the Colts.

The Chiefs sport the worst rush D of any team in the playoffs, allowing an average of 146.5 rushing yards per game (30th in the NFL), with 18 TDs allowed in 16 games. Only Indianapolis has allowed more rushing TDs among the 12 playoff teams this year. The Bears were unable to exploit the Chiefs weakness in week 17, putting up only 22/84/0 - but Minnesota sure tore K.C. up in week 16, with 39/223/3 as a team - bottom line here is that most weeks, the Chiefs' defensive front gets trampled. However, one thing to keep in mind about Arrowhead Stadium: the Chiefs won all 8 of their regular season games at home this season, and have won 13 in a row at home dating to last year. They have a huge home-field advantage thanks to their noisy and knowledgeable fans.

MLB Mike Maslowski was unable to run in practice earlier in the week due to his knee injury, and is "very questionable" (officially "doubtful" on the injury report) to play this week. LB Monty Beisel has missed several games due to his groin injury (questionable). LB Fred Jones is probable to play despite a sore foot. RB Dominic Rhodes is probable to play despite knee and shoulder injuries.

The forecast for Arrowhead Stadium calls for a high of 48° F and a low of 26° F with a 30% chance for precipitation. If the rain comes down hard (only showers are currently forecast) around game time, the field will become sloppy and ball handling becomes more of an issue.

James seems to be reaching top form, and the Chiefs haven't been able to stop the opposition most weeks during 2003. Advantage, Indianapolis.

Kansas City's Priest Holmes vs. The Indianapolis Defense (Great Matchup)

In the last game between the Colts and the Chiefs (week 7 of 2001), the Chiefs lost a shootout (28-35) and Priest Holmes had a tepid outing (15/55/0 and 3/23/0 rushing and receiving, respectively). However, since then Holmes has scored 51 TDs in 2 seasons (he had only 8 rushing scores and 2 receiving TDs in his first season as a Chief, in 2001). It's fair to say that Holmes has exploded in the seasons since he became acclimated to the Chief's system (which happened during 2001).

Holmes closed 2003 with 56/199/8 rushing and 12/98/0 receiving over the final 3 games, to claim the regular season record for most rushing TDs in a season (27). The guy is on a higher plane than most NFL backs right now, and has a great OL in front of him (4.3 yards per carry average, 11th in the NFL) that can pull and block with the best units in the league.

Indianapolis has a pretty mediocre rush D, allowing an average of 123.8 rushing yards per game in 2003 (20th in the NFL) and surrendering 19 rushing scores in 16 games (4th-most allowed in the NFL this year, and the most rushing TDs allowed by any team in the 2003 playoff pool). 26/146/0 was the total for the Broncos last week - two weeks ago, Domanick Davis rushed for 20/99/2 against the Colts - they are very vulnerable in this phase of the game, folks. Uh-oh, Colts' fans.

Indianapolis lists LB's Jim Nelson (collarbone) and David Thornton (ankle) as probable to play. RB Derrick Blaylock is probable to go for the Chiefs (ankle).

The top running back over the last 2 seasons of NFL action, running behind arguably the best OL in football (coming off an extra week of rest, to boot), gets to face off against a sub-par Colts' D that is soft in the red-zone. Priest Holmes is looking forward to thrilling the home-town crowd this weekend.

Green Bay's Ahman Green vs. The Philadelphia Defense (Good Matchup)

The last time these two teams met, in week 10, Ahman Green was a one-man wrecking crew, with 23/192/1 rushing (a 6.6 yards per carry average!), and a team-leading 3/32/1 receiving. All told, the Packers slapped down 37/241/1 rushing that day, with a long of 45 yards by Green.

Ahman Green had a tough game running the ball against the Seahawks, but still posted 100+ combined yards and 2 scores last week (23/66/2 rushing and 5/44/0 receiving). The Packers as a team managed only 32/78/2 - atypically low production from a unit that averaged 5.0 yards per carry during the 2003 regular season (the Packers were 3rd in the NFL with 2558 total rushing yards last year). LG Mike Wahle was playing with a huge amount of padding on the hand with a broken ring finger, but he didn't seem unduly affected by the lack of using his hand. Green closed out the regular season with 63/420/4 rushing and 3/12/1 receiving in the final 3 games - he came into the playoffs on a roll.

Philadelphia hasn't been the strongest run D in the NFL this year, with an average of 129.4 rushing yards allowed per game and 13 scores surrendered during regular season. Washington, in the absence of their top two RBs (Trung Canidate and Ladell Betts were both injured to close the season), managed 18/79/1 against the Eagles in the season finale (4.4 yards per carry) - in week 16, San Francisco blew the Eagles up for 42/206/1 (a 4.9 yards per carry average).

The Packers list T Chad Clifton as probable to play (illness). Philadelphia lists no one from their defensive front.

The forecast for Lincoln Financial Field calls for a high of 34° F and a low of 34° F with a 10% chance for precipitation. It should be a crisp day for a football game.

Philadelphia hasn't shut down most teams, and struggles against upper-echelon rushing attacks. Green Bay has an upper-echelon attack; advantage, Green Bay.

Carolina's Stephen Davis vs. The St. Louis Defense (Neutral Matchup)

The last Panthers/Rams game was in week 15 of 2001 - Chris Weinke was the starting QB and Richard Huntley was their top RB at that point. A lot has changed in Carolina since then, so recent history doesn't tell us much of anything about this week's matchup.

Carolina flat-out dominated the Cowboys last week, and a rested Stephen Davis did his usual work-horse part with 26/104/1 rushing and 1/2/0 receiving. He has been very dependable in the games he's been healthy, grinding out 318/1444/8 rushing and 14/159/0 receiving in 14 games during regular season (4.5 yards per carry on average). DeShaun Foster saw spot duty as a change-of-pace back last week (4/-2/0 rushing and 2/12/0 receiving), but isn't likely to see much more work while Davis is healthy and on-track. The Panthers averaged a workman-like 4.0 yards per carry this season (tied for 16th in the NFL) en route to amassing 2095 rushing yards as a team (7th in the NFL) - Davis averaged exactly 4.0 yards per carry last week; Carolina is a what-you-see-is-what-you-get type of offense heading into this game vs. the Rams.

The Rams gave up 29/112/0 to the sad-sack Detroit Lions' attack to close the season, including 18/51/0 to rookie Artose Pinner (in his first NFL start). In week 16, it was Cincinnati's stable that slapped down 23/99/0 on the Rams - they weren't run over, but they also did not shut down either team. The Rams ranked 20th in the NFL allowing an average of 123.8 rushing yards per game, but were pretty stout in the red-zone surrendering only 9 rushing TDs in 16 games.

The Rams list LB Robert Thomas (groin) as probable to play. Carolina comes into this game with good health on their unit.

This playoff game is to be played in the Edward Jones Dome, so weather won't be a factor.

Davis is a strong back playing behind an adequate OL - the Rams allow a fair amount of yardage, but rarely give up rushing scores. Sounds like a neutral matchup to us.

Philadelphia's Correll Buckhalter/Duce Staley vs. The Green Bay Defense (Neutral Matchup)

Brian Westbrook's season officially ended earlier this week, due to a torn triceps tendon that required a surgical repair. He led the team with 117/613/7 rushing and 37/332/4 receiving during the 2003 season - Correll Buckhalter was second in rushing yardage, with 126/542/8 rushing and 10/133/1 receiving, and Duce Staley third with 97/457/5 rushing and 36/382/2 receiving. Now that Westbrook is gone, it falls to Buckhalter and Staley to power the Eagle's rushing attack. In week 17 of the regular season, Buckhalter (coming off a one-week team suspension) rushed for 13/54/0 and caught 3 balls for 16 yards and 1 score - Staley had 5/7/0 rushing and 5/56/0 receiving. In the absence of Buckhalter week 16, Staley led the team with 11/53/2 rushing and 1/1/0 receiving (Westbrook had 5/29/0 rushing and 5/39/0 receiving in that game).

The last time these teams hooked up, in week 10 of 2003 (their only game vs. each other since the start of 2001), Staley led Philadelphia with 10/53/0 rushing and 2/45/0 receiving, while Buckhalter managed 9/23/0 rushing on that day. The Eagles averaged 4.8 yards per carry during 2003, tied for 3rd in the NFL - their OL has done a great job of run-blocking all year long (the team was 9th in the NFL with 2015 rushing yards).

Green Bay has played fairly stout rush defense this year, allowing an average of 106.3 rushing yards per game (10th in the NFL), while surrendering only 10 rushing TDs all year. Seattle managed 21/49/3 last week (the passing game set up short-yardage situations at the goal line). Denver's "B" team racked up 34/114/0 in the closing game of the regular season. A big void in the center of the defensive front - Gilbert Brown has been sidelined for two games by a knee injury - made it easier for the Seahawks to score in the Wild Card game.

Brown is listed as questionable, as is DE Chuckie Nworkorie (wrist). LB Marcus Wilkins (calf) is doubtful to play. The Eagles come into this game healthy in this phase.

The forecast for Lincoln Financial Field calls for a high of 34° F and a low of 34° F with a 10% chance for precipitation. It should be a crisp day for a football game.

The Eagles' stable took a blow when Westbrook went down, but Buckhalter and Staley have been solid backs this season - they should be able to take up the slack left behind due to Westbrook's injury. Green Bay plays tough run D most weeks, but was exposed as vulnerable in the red-zone last week - if Gilbert Brown makes it back on the playing field, we call this a neutral matchup. If Brown stands on the sidelines again, look for Staley and Buckhalter to enjoy stronger games.

New England's Antowain Smith/Kevin Faulk vs. The Tennessee Defense (Tough Matchup)

These two teams know each other about as well as non-divisional rivals can: since New England's 2001 championship season (during which the two teams did not meet), Tennessee has split two games with the Patriots. The Titans won 24-7 in week 15 of 2002, but lost 38-30 in week 5 of 2003. This year, Antowain Smith and Michael Cloud clobbered the Titans for 16/80/1 rushing and 7/73/2 rushing, respectively (Smith added 3/23/0 receiving) - the team had 27/161/3 rushing that day in their strongest effort of the season. In 2002, Smith and Faulk struggled to post 11/46/0 rushing (Smith had 2/41/0 receiving, with 1/0/0 for Faulk).

However, it seems likely that Cloud will be inactive for this game (he has seen little action since the explosion against Tennessee). Given the frigid temperatures forecast for Saturday night, everyone expects the Patriots to use battering-ram Antowain Smith in the featured role. Smith has averaged 19 carries per game in December, and he closed the regular season on a high note (for Smith) with 50/234/1 rushing and 4/11/0 receiving over the final 3 games. Those rushing numbers equate to 4.68 yards per carry - Smith has been in a groove lately. Faulk had 23/68/0 rushing and 3/9/0 receiving over the final 3 games of the season in the change-of-pace role. New England had been struggling to rush the ball earlier in the season, and averaged 3.4 yards per carry in 2003 (30th in the league) while gaining 1607 rushing yards as a team (27th in the NFL). However, the cold weather combined with his relatively light work load in the months leading to December has invigorated Smith's game during the stretch run.

Since the Titans coughed up 161 yards and 3 TDs to the Patriots, they have added LB Peter Sirmon and RDT Albert Haynesworth back into their starting mix, and currently rank as the #1 rush D in the land during 2003 regular season, allowing an average of 80.9 rushing yards per game with 10 rushing scores surrendered in 16 games. They stuffed Jamal Lewis last week in the Wild Card round (14/35/0 rushing with 2/4/0 receiving) - that same Lewis came within a cat's whisker or two of breaking the NFL single-season rushing yardage record. 19/89/0 was what they allowed to last seasons' NFL champs in week 17. This is a very stout run D, folks.

New England lists no one on their Wednesday injury report. LB/LS Ken Amato (hamstring) and LB Rocky Calmus (leg) are listed as questionable by the Titans.

The forecast for Gillette Stadium calls for a high of 24° F and a low of 5° F with a 10% chance for precipitation. As this game is set for 8:15 P.M., the temperature will be closer to 5° F than 24° F - the ball will be hard to grip in such conditions, making the passing game more difficult. The entire field was resodded during the bye week, so the playing surface should be in decent shape.

Smith and company mount a pretty mediocre attack most weeks, but he has come on in recent games to make the rushing attack respectable. However, Smith is no Jamal Lewis, and you saw what the Titans did to him last week. Advantage, Tennessee.

St. Louis' Marshall Faulk vs. The Carolina Defense (Tough Matchup)

The last time these teams met, in 2001, the Panthers were sporting a 1-15 record, and they had a different coaching staff and a very different roster. Recent history won't tell us anything useful for analyzing this matchup.

The Rams' rushing attack finished the season stone-cold - Marshall Faulk gained 12/35/1 on the ground vs. Detroit, and Arlen Harris put up 1/6/0. It was not an auspicious end to the regular season. Faulk racked up 62/241/3 rushing and 14/86/1 receiving in the closing 3 weeks of the regular season - the poor effort against the Lions came as a surprise. As a team, the Rams averaged only 3.6 yards per carry in 2003 (tied for 28th in the NFL), and amassed only 1496 rushing yards all season (30th in the NFL) - they have not played well in this phase of the game, generally speaking.

Last week, the Cowboys were utterly stuffed by the Carolina front 7 (18/72/1 as a team, but the running backs only managed 14/47/0) on their way to a 29-10 defeat. Two weeks ago, the Giants suffered a similar fate while managing only 19/76/0 in their game vs. Carolina. The Panthers had been a more giving bunch for most of 2003, allowing an average of 107.6 rushing yards per game (11th in the NFL), with 10 rushing scores surrendered - but they have put the clamps on their most recent opponents.

Neither team lists injuries for players on their respective units.

This playoff game is to be played in the Edward Jones Dome, so weather won't be a factor.

Faulk and company sputtered to end the season, and have struggled during stretches of 2003. The Panthers have been very tough in this phase of the game during the last few weeks, and were generally solid at rush D all season long. There is a tough road in front of Marshall Faulk and company this week - even with home-field advantage flowing to the Rams, it looks like the Panthers have the edge in this matchup.

Tennessee's Eddie George/Chris Brown vs. The New England Defense (Tough Matchup)

These two teams know each other about as well as non-divisional rivals can: since New England's 2001 championship season (during which the two teams did not meet), Tennessee has split two games with the Patriots. The Titans won 24-7 in week 15 of 2002, but lost 38-30 in week 5 of 2003. Eddie George and Chris Brown both had miserable outings against the Patriots this season (15/35/0 rushing for George, 2/6/0 rushing for Brown) - in 2002, George rushed 31 times for 101 yards and 0 scores, with 2/16/0 receiving. The Titans haven't enjoyed a lot of success rushing the ball against the Patriots in recent years.

The big news here is that Eddie George played through a separated left shoulder during last week's hard-fought win over Baltimore. He is expected to start as usual this week, wearing a harness on the shoulder to keep discomfort to the minimum possible - but how long he'll be able to continue is an open question. Coach Fisher has held George out of the early practices this week, attempting to reduce the swelling and discomfort caused by the injury. Chris Brown did a solid job in relief of George against a tough Ravens' D last week, gaining 11/61/1 rushing with 1/2/0 receiving - George had 25/88/0 rushing and 2/9/0 receiving in his chances last week (he gains approximately the same sub-100, 80-something rushing yards week in and week out - George had 68/233/0 rushing and 6/70/0 receiving in his final 3 regular season games this year).

The Patriots are no slouches when playing at home this season. They have allowed 1 TD in their past 6 home games; they have stopped 74 of their opponents' last 75 drives short of the end-zone. During the last 6 home games, they gave up an average of 3.7 points per game. The team ranks 4th in the NFL in rushing yards allowed per game during 2003, averaging only 89.6 (with 10 rushing scores given up to date). 20/82/0 was what the Bills put up in week 17; in week 16, the Jets managed 26/109/2. As you can see, the Patriots were a little off their usual pace in the closing weeks of 2003 - but not much off of it.

George is officially listed as questionable, as is RB Robert Holcombe (hamstring). New England lists no one on their injury report.

The Titans struggle to move the ball on the ground most weeks, and Eddie George will be trying to play through a bad shoulder. The Patriots have been ultra-tough at home in 2003, and have a history of containing George - advantage, Patriots.