Rushing Matchups

PLEASE NOTE: This does NOT replace the Cheatsheet ranking. The Cheatsheet rankings are the final say on where we see a player for that week. The Matchup Breakdowns are simply one more tool in the box when it comes to helping choose your lineup.

Also note, just because a player has a "bad" matchup, it does NOT mean he's not a starter in your league. If Edgerrin James is playing the toughest rush defense in the league, that just means he's got a tough matchup that week. He's also your starter. In the same way, if the worst RB on your roster has a "great" matchup, that doesn't necessarily mean you start him, it just means he'll likely fare better this week than he normally would.

Bottom line, the cheatsheets are the final word.

Let's jump to it.

Joe

New England's Antowain Smith/Kevin Faulk vs. The Indianapolis Defense (Great Matchup)

These teams have met twice since the Patriots' 2001 Super-Bowl season - in week 3 of 2001, and in week 13 this year. Both games ended in Patriots' victories - Antowain Smith (22/94/2 rushing) and Kevin Faulk (9/48/1 rushing) both scored during the 2001 game, while neither found pay dirt in week 13 this year (15/42/0 rushing for Faulk, while Mike Cloud plowed in 4/6/2 during a week off for Smith).

Last week, against the Titan's top-ranked rush D, the Patriots amassed 27/96/1 as a team - a good showing against the Titans. Smith rushed for 16/69/1 (a 4.3 yards-per-carry average) and Faulk chipped in with 5/22/0 rushing and 3/31/0 receiving. The solid showing by Smith continued his strong December finish (50/234/1 rushing and 4/11/0 receiving over the final 3 games of regular season). It wouldn't be surprising to see a similar sharing of the work-load this week - the weather is supposed to be significantly better, which might help Faulk get a few more touches (the Patriots tend to feed the ball to Smith when conditions are particularly nasty).

Indianapolis' rush D isn't very impressive, ranking 20th in the NFL during the regular season (allowing 123.8 rushing yards per game and 19 TDs). They continue to be soft in this phase as the playoffs continue, giving away 26/146/0 to the Broncos in the Wild Card round. They followed up that underwhelming performance by surrendering 30/196/2 to the Chiefs last week (a whopping 6.5 yards per carry!) - 24/176/2 went to Priest Holmes. The Colts are struggling in this phase of the game, big-time.

In fact, the Colts have averaged 6.1 rushing yards allowed per carry during the playoffs. Said Coach Dungy "It's not just the stat, but the way we're giving them up,…We've just got to be in the right gaps, do the right things. We've got to tackle a little bit better."… "We're playing the hottest team in football," said Dungy. "They are very well coached and they are very talented. They're playing at home and they're playing with a lot of confidence. We've won our share of road games and now we have to go in and win one more with the stakes being very high." (1/14/04 Boston Globe article by Joe Burris).

The Patriots list LG Damien Woody as doubtful with his injured leg/knee. The Colts say DE Robert Mathis (groin) is probable to play.

The forecast for Gillette Stadium calls for a high of 31°F with a low of 18°F and a 20% chance of precipitation. That should seem downright balmy to the Patriots after last week's deep-freeze temperatures. The game starts at 3 P.M. - the temperatures should be nearer the high end of the forecast range.

Indianapolis hasn't stopped anybody during the playoffs, and meanwhile Antowain Smith has definitely built up a head of steam in the last 4 games - a big edge flows to the home-team in this game.

Carolina's Stephen Davis/DeShaun Foster vs. The Philadelphia Defense (Good Matchup)

These teams met for the first time since Coach Fox took over in Carolina in week 13 of 2003. Philadelphia came out on top, 25-16 - thanks in part to 3 missed field goals and 1 missed extra point on the part of PK John Kasay. He didn't miss another kick during regular season (although he was 3/5 in field goals during the game vs. St. Louis last week). Anyway, Stephen Davis did his part against the Eagles in week 13, with 23/115/0 rushing (the team was 29/136/0 that day).

The big question mark this week is the status of Davis' groin/quadriceps injury, sustained during his 64 yard romp vs. St. Louis last week. Davis was unable to continue play after the injury, and is officially "questionable" to play this week vs. Philadelphia. If he can't play, DeShaun Foster (21/95/0 rushing and 1/8/0 receiving in the playoff game last week) will try to fill Davis' shoes (Foster did not carry the ball during the week 13 game vs. Philadelphia, due to a hand injury and the fact that Davis was in good shape at that time). During the regular season, Foster averaged 3.8 yards per carry (113/429/0) and also caught 26/207/2 - he amassed more receptions, receiving yards and TD catches than Davis (14/159/0) during the first 16 games. As a team, Carolina slapped down 41/216/1 against the Rams (Nick Goings had 6/22/0 and Brad Hoover added 2/9/1 helping out in Davis' absence), a healthy 5.3 yards-per-carry average.

Philadelphia's rush D came into the Green Bay game averaging 129.4 rushing yards allowed per game (with 13 rushing scores surrendered to that point) - Ahman Green, Najeh Davenport and company abused the Eagles for 37/210/0 rushing (Green averaged 6.2 yards per carry on his 25 attempts for 156 of the 210 yards) - the Packers made it look easy to run the ball against the Eagles. However, a key goal-line stand at the end of the first half denied the Packers the end-zone on 4th and inches - and may have helped lead the Packer's decision to punt the ball late in the 4th quarter in a similar situation. "We do let people run up and down the field, but we toughen up when teams get into the red zone," defensive end N.D. Kalu said. "That's Jim Johnson's system. His specialty is keeping teams out of the end zone." (Philadelphia Inquirer, 1/14/04)

Carolina lists Davis as questionable on the Wednesday injury report. DE's Jerome McDougle (arm) and Brandon Whiting (knee) are listed as probable for Philadelphia.

The forecast for Lincoln Financial Field calls for a high of 37°F with a low of 19°F and a 20% chance of precipitation. Those are pretty nice conditions for Philadelphia in the middle of January, although the temperature will be closer to the low end of the scale during the game, which should kick off around 6:45 P.M.

The Eagles just aren't very good at run defense, generally speaking, while Carolina mounts a fairly robust rushing attack most weeks. If Davis is in good shape by game time, this is a great matchup for the Panthers - if he is not able to go, Foster and company should still enjoy a decent outing - Advantage, Carolina.

Indianapolis' Edgerrin James vs. The New England Defense (Neutral Matchup)

These two teams have clashed twice since the beginning of 2001 - in week 3 of 2001 (a 44-13 victory for New England on their way to the NFL championship) and in week 13 of 2003 (a 38-34 victory for New England). Edgerrin James was 1 yard short of reversing the result in the game week 13 - he was tackled on the 1-yard line to preserve the Patriots' slim victory during regular season. He amassed 25/88/0 rushing and 8/50/0 receiving in the course of that near-miss last year. Back in 2001, James had less luck, putting up 17/55/0 rushing and 6/38/0 receiving.

However, the Colts are on a huge roll coming into the Conference championship game, with two explosive victories fueled by the offense during the last two games, including a 38-31 triumph in the very unfriendly environs of Arrowhead Stadium last week. James ripped up K.C. for 26/125/2 rushing and 1/16/0 rushing. He was spelled by Dominic Rhodes (5/18/0), but this is James' team nowadays (17/78/0 rushing and 5/37/0 receiving in the 41-10 rout of Denver two weeks ago). James has averaged 4.6 and 4.8 yards-per-carry in the 2 playoff games - the OL is doing well, opening holes for him during the playoffs, even if they were sub-par during regular season (3.7 yards-per-carry average).

New England, meanwhile, sweated out a close one against the Titans, holding the Tennessee stable of runners to 26/84/1 (a 3.2 yards-per-carry average). Their season average was 89.6 rushing yards allowed per game (4th in the NFL), so the playoff game was right on target for the Patriots. However, they were averaging only 3.7 points allowed in their final 6 home games, so the Titans managed more scoring than New England is used to giving away at Gillette Stadium. As the quotation below points out, you never know what to expect from this defense from one week to the next (except excellence, that is).

"…Belichick's background is on defense, and much admired. He is famous for innovative game-planning. He always has a wrinkle, a look, a new approach, a new package of blitzes or stunts or both, a new alignment or disguise. "You can almost rest assured you're not going to get what they did the week before," Colts linebackers coach Mike Murphy said. "If they do what you see on tape from the week before or the week before that, it's going to be wrapped in a different package. They'll disguise it." It helps to have a savvy, deeply experienced coordinator and talented, veteran players. Belichick has both. Romeo Crennel is a respected 23-year NFL veteran who took over as coordinator in 2001, when the Patriots won the Super Bowl. Nose tackle Ted Washington, ends Richard Seymour and Willie McGinnest, cornerback Ty Law and strong safety Rodney Harrison have been to the Pro Bowl. Law, Seymour and McGinnest are going again this year"…(1/14/04 Indianapolis Star article by Phil Richards).

The Patriots come into this game healthy along the defensive front, while the Colts list G Tupe Peko (shoulder) as probable to play. Injuries aren't a major concern in this phase of the game.

The Colts are running on jet-fuel right now, and they almost beat the Patriots last time around - however, the Patriots are a very talented defense, and they have home-field advantage at their back - this looks like a neutral matchup between talented units that are both playing at the top of their respective games.

Philadelphia's Duce Staley/Correll Buckhalter/Donovan McNabb vs. The Carolina Defense (Tough Matchup)

These teams met for the first time since Coach Fox took over in Carolina in week 13 of the regular season. Brian Westbrook, who's now on IR, did the heavy lifting in that game, with 12/64/0 rushing and 5/32/0 receiving. 6/30/0 and 8/24/1 were the rushing totals that Buckhalter and Staley managed, respectively. McNabb had a modest 2/6/0 that day.

However, against the Packers it was Donovan McNabb who exploited the soft underbelly of the Green Bay Defense, running for long gains up the middle of the field to finish with 11/107/0 rushing (with a long of 41 yards). Duce Staley was second-most effective, with 5/45/0 (9.0 ypc average) rushing and 3/26/1 receiving. Buckhalter had little success last week, rushing 9/12/0 and catching 1/5/0. The Eagles averaged 4.8 yards per carry during regular season - they are used to having running room to work with.

Carolina has been very tough to run on during the playoffs, limiting the Cowboys to 18/72/1 in the Wild Card round and then stifling Marshall Faulk and company last week in the Divisional round - the Rams totaled 23/64/1 (a 2.8 yards-per-carry average). The Panthers are really turning up the heat in this phase of the game during the playoffs - they averaged 107.6 rushing yards allowed per game during regular season, but have elevated their play significantly in the last two weeks.

Brentson Buckner is trying to prepare his young compatriots on the defensive line to face the pressure of a Conference championship game: "Buckner isn't shy about sharing the wisdom he gained playing in two AFC title games and one Super Bowl with the Pittsburgh Steelers… "One thing I try to do is explain, 'Hey man, there is no tomorrow. So you go out there and play as hard as you can go and if you can't go, get somebody else in there who can,' " Buckner said. "Give yourself the ultimate chance for success and don't slight yourself. "You don't want to be sitting back saying, 'I wish I had done this, I wish I had watched more film.' That's what I am trying to show."

Buckner has been a steady influence through Carolina's rebuilding process. A 10-year veteran, Buckner is the oldest player (32) on a young defensive line regarded as one of the best in the NFL. He's tutored All-Pro tackle Kris Jenkins, helped develop ends Mike Rucker and Julius Peppers and been an invaluable resource for the coaching staff. "We are young in the defensive line, very talented, but young," coach John Fox said. "Brentson communicates a lot of things to those guys, both on and off the field, during games and before games." (1/14/04 AP article by Jenna Fryer)

Both teams come into this game in relatively good health on their respective units, although Correll Buckhalter shows up as probable with a knee complaint on the Eagle's Wednesday injury report. Injuries shouldn't be a big factor in this matchup.

The forecast for Lincoln Financial Field calls for a high of 37°F with a low of 19°F and a 20% chance of precipitation. That's not too bad for Philadelphia in the middle of January, although the temperature will be closer to the low end of the scale during the game, which should kick off around 6:45 P.M.

The Eagles' backs were pretty quiet last week, but McNabb made the Packers pay numerous times. Carolina has been hard-nosed in this phase of the game, and come into Lincoln Financial Field believing that they can win in a hostile environment (and they are a team used to facing good running QBs - Aaron Brooks and Michael Vick are both on their schedule twice a year) - even with home field advantage working against them, we give a slight edge to the Panthers in this matchup.