Rushing Matchups

The last time these two teams faced off in week 17 of 2001, Carolina was closing out a 15-game losing streak (and New England was gearing up for a Super Bowl run). George Seifert was the Panthers' head coach, Chris Weinke was the starting QB, and Richard Huntley was the starting tail-back. A lot has changed in Carolina since then - recent history doesn't tell us much about this matchup.

Stephen Davis' health looks good coming into this game - "All hands, including RB Stephen Davis, participated yesterday as the Panthers went through their first practice session since arriving in the Lone Star State for Super Bowl XXXVIII. After the 55-minute workout at the University of Houston, coach John Fox said of his star running back, "He looked just like he's looked all season. He's definitely healthy. We rested him last week, and he's full tilt." (Boston Herald article by George Kimball, 1/27/04). Davis played strongly two weeks ago in spite of the quadriceps/groin injury, putting up 19/76/0 rushing and 1/21/0 receiving against the Eagles while wearing special protective gear on his injured thigh.

DeShaun Foster has performed very well in his opportunities as well, including 14/60/1 rushing and 1/6/0 receiving against the Eagles in the conference championship game. The Panthers as a team rushed for 40/155/1 against the Eagles, after outings of 41/216/1 vs. St. Louis and 34/107/1 vs. Dallas. The Panthers' ground game is firing on all cylinders coming into this matchup.

New England crushed Indianapolis two weeks ago, but Edgerrin James managed 19/78/1 rushing against the Patriot defensive front (25/98/1 as a team) despite 4 drives ending prematurely due to interceptions. The Patriots played well against the Titans, holding the Tennessee stable of runners to 26/84/1 (a 3.2 yards-per-carry average). Their season average was 89.6 rushing yards allowed per game (4th in the NFL) - this is a tough rushing D, without a doubt. The Patriots' rush defense expects a boost as ILB Tedy Bruschi looks ready to play after missing action due to a calf strain " Unless there's a huge setback between now and then, Bruschi is in. Bad right calf and all… If he can walk, he'll play, and Bruschi is clearly walking just fine. After arriving in Houston with the team Sunday, he literally bounded down the steps of the plane, with no hint of a leg problem." (Boston Herald article by Karen Guregian, 1/28/04).

Aside from Bruschi's calf (probable), both teams are in fine health coming into the championship game.

The forecast for Reliant Stadium calls for a high of 67°F and a low of 38°F, with a 40% chance for precipitation. The league has relaxed the rules governing the opening and closing of the retractable roof over Reliant Stadium for the Super Bowl - there will be no restrictions on when or how often the roof may be opened or closed throughout the game (it takes about 7 minutes to open or close the roof). During the regular season, the Texans have to decide 90 minutes before the game whether to open or close the roof, and the only permissible change during a game is to close an open roof if conditions deteriorate.

The Panthers' two powerful runners and their good offensive line have all proven their merit during the playoffs, and come into the game on a roll. New England has a top-flight defensive front that is experienced and deep. The New England D has been so strong lately that the Patriots have not been behind during the last 7 games they have played. This is an even matchup between powerful units that should be very hotly contested down to the final seconds of the Super Bowl.

New England's Antowain Smith/Kevin Faulk vs. The Carolina Defense (Neutral Matchup)

In week 17 of 2001, Antowain Smith pounded out 21/81/1 (with a long TD run of 32 yards included) against the Panthers as they finished their dismal 1-15 season. Since then, a lot has changed in Carolina - however, Smith has seen Kris Jenkins, Mike Rucker, Brentson Buckner, Dan Morgan and Mike Minter before, and enjoyed a decent game against them. Kevin Faulk was a non-entity the last time these teams hooked up, with 2/-3/0 rushing.

In the divisional round of the playoffs, against the Titan's top-ranked rush D, the Patriots amassed 27/96/1 as a team. Smith rushed for 16/69/1 (a 4.3 yards-per-carry average) and Faulk chipped in with 5/22/0 rushing and 3/31/0 receiving. They followed up that performance in the conference championship with 22/100/0 rushing (a 4.5 ypc average) and 1/8/0 receiving for Smith and 3/8/0 rushing with 1/8/0 receiving on Faulk's part. The strong play of Antowain Smith during the closing month of the regular season and on into the playoffs is a big part of the Patriots' success in the latter half of the season. Smith has carried the ball 38 times in the post-season, while Faulk has rushed the ball 8 times.

Carolina has been tough to run on during the bulk of the playoffs, limiting the Cowboys to 18/72/1 in the wild card round and then stuffing St. Louis in the divisional round - the Rams totaled 23/64/1 (a 2.8 yards-per-carry average). The Panthers slipped against the Eagles, coughing up 26/137/0 (a 5.3 yards-per-carry average), but managed to shut down Philadelphia in the red-zone, resulting in a 14-3 victory. The team averaged 107.6 rushing yards allowed per game during regular season, but has generally played better than that during the playoffs. Out of their 19 games this season, 9 of Carolina's 14 victories (and 3 of their 5 losses) have been decided by a margin of seven or fewer points - this D keeps games close, and isn't prone to giving up points in bunches.

Both teams come into the game in fine health, although FB Patrick Pass has a sore ankle (probable).

The Patriots and Antowain Smith have a head of steam built up coming into the Super-Bowl. On the other side of the ball, the Panthers play essentially solid rush defense, and sport one of the top defensive lines in football. This looks like an even matchup, with neither team in a position to dominate the other.

Passing Matchups

Carolina's Passing Attack vs. The New England Defense (Tough Matchup)

The last time these teams met, in week 17 of 2001, Chris Weinke threw 3 interceptions, of which 2 were returned for TD's. Otis Smith grabbed 2 interceptions and scored, while Ty Law notched the other interception returned for a TD. A lot has changed in the 2 years between then and now, especially for the Panthers. Steve Smith did play in the game 2 years ago, snagging 3/36/0. Muhsin Muhammad didn't catch a ball that day.

Out of 54 plays by the Panthers' offense against Philadelphia, Jake Delhomme was asked to throw the ball 14 times - he connected on 9 of those passes for 101 yards, 1 TD and 0 interceptions in those limited opportunities. However, the Eagles' defensive front was a glaring team weakness, worn down due to a minimum of available personnel (thanks to injuries). By contrast, the Patriots have a healthy and deep defensive front - we're expecting more balance from the Panthers this week. Back in the wild card round, when Carolina faced another fine defense (the Cowboys were 1st vs. the pass and 3rd vs. the rush in yards allowed during regular season), they passed the ball 29 times (18/29 for 273 yards, 1 TD and 0 interceptions for Delhomme) and rushed it 34 times. In between those games, Delhomme tossed 16/26 for 290 yards, 1 TD and 1 interception against the Rams. He has racked up 43/69 for 664 yards, 3 TD's and 1 interception in the course of 3 playoff games. Steve Smith and Muhsin Muhammad are receivers 1A and 1B (as usual - only Torry Holt and Isaac Bruce combined for more catches as a starting tandem in 2003) with 14/324/2 and 11/212/1, respectively, during the playoffs. This week, the Panthers expect to have a physical matchup on their hands against Ty Law, Rodney Harrison, Tyrone Poole and company. ""This is going to be a physical ballgame," Muhammad said yesterday…"The techniques they use are aggressive-style techniques. But I'm not intimidated, and I don't think that they think I'm intimidated. We're both going to bring our styles to the table, and it's going to be a good game." (Wintson-Salem Journal article by John Delong, 1/27/04) Rodney Harrison had the following to say: "…But I'm always ready to hit. If you had a helmet on right now, I'd probably hit you." (Boston Herald article by Michael Felger, 1/27/04)

New England handled both of the league MVP's they had to face thus far in the playoffs, limiting Steve McNair to 18/26 for 210 yards, 1 TD and 1 interception. They embarrassed Peyton Manning and the hottest passing attack in the AFC during the conference championship, destroying the Colts with 4 interceptions (3 by Ty Law, 1 by Rodney Harrison). Before McNair and Manning came to town, the final 2 opponents that the Patriots faced in regular season - Chad Pennington and Drew Bledsoe - combined for 431 yards, 0 TD's and 7 interceptions - the Patriots have 12 interceptions in their last 4 games. The Patriots led the league with 29 interceptions during regular season, and generated 41 sacks, good for 6th in the NFL (they notched 3 vs. Tennessee, and 4 vs. the Colt's excellent offensive line).This is a nasty pass defense, folks - they are blowing up the opposition with regularity, and they nuked the streaking Colts two weeks ago.

Both units come into this game in good health.

Jake Delhomme has been steady and productive during the playoffs - but he'll need to be very accurate and careful with the ball against the Patriots' deadly secondary. After their display of dominance against the Colts, it is clear that the Patriots' unit should have the upper hand in this matchup.

New England's Passing Attack vs. The Carolina Defense (Neutral Matchup)

Tom Brady didn't play particularly well the last time these teams faced off (in week 17 of 2001), tossing 17/29 for 198 yards, 1 TD and 2 interceptions - the Panthers' starting FS for this year's Super Bowl, Deon Grant, was the player who grabbed both the picks. Troy Brown caught the most balls that day in 2001, with 6/45/0 - then-Patriot and current Panther TE Jermaine Wiggins snagged the only passing score in the game (2/36/1).

Brady has put up decent numbers in his 2 playoff games, with 22/37 for 237 yards, 1 TD and 1 interception against the Colts in the conference championship, and 21/41 for 207 yards, 1 TD and 0 interceptions vs. Tennessee in the divisional round. Troy Brown (7/88/0) and David Givens (8/68/1) were his overwhelming favorites against the Colts. Givens has the most catches during the playoffs, with 12/94/1; Brown is second with 9/99/0. Brady's numbers have suffered from some significant drops by his TE's Christian Fauria and Daniel Graham: "Fauria had two dropped balls in the AFC Championship Game, one in the third quarter and one in the fourth. Both passes were well inside the red zone and should have been hauled in for scores. Graham dropped a pass in the divisional round against Tennessee near the 5-yard line that appeared to be a touchdown opportunity. The second-year player out of Colorado knows those chances can't be left on the table Sunday. "Drops are something I've had the last couple of games and I have to focus," Graham said. "This is a big game right here. I've been working all week. They've been throwing the ball to me and I've been taking extra passes." (Boston Herald article by Gus Martins, 1/28/04).

The New England receivers are a prolific group, but no one player caught 60 passes this year, posted a 100-yard receiving game or caught more than eight passes in a single contest - Brady can pick and choose among the TE's, as well as WR's Troy Brown, Deion Branch, David Givens and Bethel Johnson (to name a few of the guys catching Brady's passes), and he spreads the ball around a lot.

In order to counter the Patriots' attack, according to Kris Jenkins, the Panthers will get after Brady. "What we have to do is hit them in the mouth. That will change everything. That will make Brady hurry the ball. That will throw them off. When a quarterback starts getting hit, even if you don't always sack him, he might be looking to get rid of that ball just a little faster. Hit them in the mouth, make it a street fight, and see who folds first. Since neither team has folded yet, it should be a great game." (Boston Herald article by Gus Martins, 1/28/04).

As the Panthers sport one of the best defensive lines in the NFL, a unit which generated 40 sacks during regular season (to which they have added 10 sacks in 3 playoff games, including 5 against the Eagles in the conference championship), their plan is not far-fetched. Plus their secondary is playing well: Quincy Carter (21/36 for 154 yards, 0 TD's and 1 interception), Marc Bulger (27/46 for 332 yards, 0 TD's and 3 interceptions), Donovan McNabb (10/22 for 100 yards, 0 TD's and 3 interceptions), and Koy Detmer (7/14 for 88 yards, 0 TD's and 1 interception) have all struggled to move the ball effectively on the Panthers during the playoffs. They have yet to surrender a passing TD in 3 playoff games. Ricky Manning, Jr., in particular, has come up big during the playoffs with 4 interceptions in the last 2 games, 3 of them vs. the Eagles. Prior to the playoffs, the Panthers had only 16 interceptions during regular season (they have 8 in post-season). The Panthers ranked 9th during regular season, averaging 187.7 passing yards allowed per game - they just don't give up many long bombs and are good tacklers, limiting run after the catch.

Both teams come into the game in good shape, health-wise. Only TE Christian Fauria shows up on the injury report (leg, probable) for the Patriots' unit.

Tom Brady is a very steady quarterback with big-game experience (he has never lost a playoff game in 5 appearances), and he has a deep stable of receivers to rely upon. The Panthers have elevated their play during the tournament, and were a solid group to begin with - this looks like a fairly even matchup between two talented squads, with neither in a position to dominate.